FNUS73 KPAH 271851 FWSPAH SPOT FORECAST FOR BUTTERMILK HILL BLOWDOWN UNIT 17...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 151 PM CDT TUE MAR 27 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1400 CDT ON MARCH 27. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN STEADY FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON... WITH ISOLATED GUSTS UP TO 15 MPH FOR THE FIRST ONE TO TWO HOURS. GIVEN LOCAL TOPOGRAPHICAL INFLUENCES...THE WINDS MAY PERSIST FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN ABOVE THE 1700 FOOT AGL MINIMUMS THROUGH 6 PM CDT. THE ONLY CLOUD COVER WILL BE PASSING HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS...SO SUNSHINE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD. .REST OF TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........74 AT IGNITION...MAX 77. RH..................46 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 42 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTH AT 10 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 11 MPH. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5. MIXING HEIGHT.......3900 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 3000-4200 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1600 FT AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 16 TO 20 MPH. TIME (CDT) 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM SKY (%).........PC PC PC PC PC WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............74 75 76 76 75 RH..............46 46 46 48 50 20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S 20 FT WIND SPD..8 9 9 9 8 20 FT WIND GUST.20 20 20 20 20 MIX HGT (KFT)...3.9 4.2 4.0 3.0 1.6 TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S TRANSP WIND SPD.20 20 18 18 16 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....4 4 5 5 5 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MIN 60. RH..................MAX 93 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 9 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......100-500 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 8 TO 15 MPH. TIME (CDT) 7 PM 9 PM 11 PM 1 AM 3 AM 5 AM SKY (%).........PCLDY PCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............73 69 66 64 63 62 RH..............55 66 75 81 84 87 20 FT WIND......S 7 S 6 S 6 SW 6 SW 6 SW 6 20 FT WIND GUST.20 10 10 10 10 10 MIX HGT (FT)....500 100 200 200 200 100 TRANSPORT WIND..S 15 S 13 S 10 SW 8 SW 10 SW 12 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 5 4 3 .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE.........MAX 80. RH..................MIN 41 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......200-1400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2500-3800 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 4300-6200 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 2100 FT AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 7 TO 16 MPH. TIME (CDT) 7 AM 10 AM 1 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY WEATHER COV.....S CHC CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............61 69 76 78 RH..............90 66 50 45 20 FT WIND......SW 5G10 W 6G10 W 6G10 W 6G10 MIX HGT (FT)....200 1400 4800 6000 TRANSPORT WIND..SW 9 W 16 W 15 W 15 CWR.............0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....3 3 4 4 $$ FORECASTER...SMITH REQUESTED BY...RAYMOND PARRISH TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20120327.BUTTE.02/PAH