FNUS74 KAMA 272353
FWSAMA

SPOT FORECAST FOR BUFFALO LAKE RX...USFWS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
653 PM CDT TUE MAR 27 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 CDT ON MARCH 28.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH TO NEAR INTERSTATE 40 BY
IGNITION TIME. 20 FOOT WINDS WILL BE IN THE 5 TO 10 MPH RANGE AND OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST AT THE BURN SITE INITIALLY. WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE TO
NEAR 15 MILES AN HOUR IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND
THERE MAY BE SOME HIGHER GUSTS NEAR 25 MILES AN HOUR BRIEFLY BY MID
AFTERNOON. THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM AROUND
65 PERCENT IN THE EARLY MORNING TO AROUND 15 PERCENT IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON. 20 FOOT WINDS WILL THEN MOVE TO THE SOUTH AROUND 15 MILES AN HOUR
AFTER SUNSET AS A DRYLINE MOVES BACK TO THE WEST OF THE BURN SITE.
THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM DURING THE EARLY EVENING
AT THE BURN SITE...BUT AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL STAY EAST OF THE BURN SITE WEDNESDAY
EVENING.

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 84.
MIN HUMIDITY........15 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 14 MPH.
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......0-500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 17500-19000 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST AROUND 12 MPH.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 48.
MAX HUMIDITY........86 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 14 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    EVENING.
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.
LAL.................3.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......16000-17000 FT AGL DECREASING TO 0 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTH AROUND 11 MPH.

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 82.
MIN HUMIDITY........20 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 12 TO 14 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......0-1500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4000 FT AGL LATE IN
                    THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 6500 FT AGL
                    EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON INCREASING TO 9000 FT
                    AGL EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON INCREASING TO 11000
                    FT AGL INCREASING TO 13500 FT AGL LATE IN THE
                    AFTERNOON INCREASING TO 16000 FT AGL DECREASING
                    TO 14000 FT AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTH AROUND 12 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...GOEHRING
REQUESTED BY...RICHARD BAKER
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20120328.BUFFA.01/AMA