FNUS75 KBOU 290210 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR LOWER NORTH FORK...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 809 PM MDT WED MAR 28 2012 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES TOWARD THE AREA WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH POSSIBLE ON RIDGETOPS AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...MUCH LIGHTER WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN VALLEY LOCATIONS WHERE WEAK INVERSIONS FORM. POOR HUMIDITY RECOVERY WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY ON THE RIDGES. THE WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO THURSDAY MORNING...WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. WESTERLY WINDS IN THE MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT BACK TO AN UPSLOPE AND EASTERLY COMPONENT IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH VERY LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS. AS WINDS INCREASE SATURDAY...HIGHER FIRE DANGER AND A DEVELOPMENT OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH MORE GUSTY WINDS AS THE NEXT WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .REST OF TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(30-40%). MIN TEMPERATURE.....39-41 VALLEYS...41-44 RIDGES. MAX HUMIDITY........40-48% VALLEYS...AND POOR RECOVERY TO 32-38% RIDGES. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 4-10 MPH VALLEYS...AND SOUTHWEST 8-15 MPH WITH GUSTS INCREASING TO AROUND 25 MPH ON RIDGETOPS. CHANCE OF A FEW 30 MPH GUSTS ON HIGHEST RIDGETOPS. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 7-16 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......4000 FT AGL UNTIL 2100...THEN DECREASING TO BELOW 1000 FT AGL BY 2400. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR UNTIL 2100...THEN POOR. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(40-50%) UNTIL 1500...THEN MOSTLY SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....66-70. MIN HUMIDITY........10-14%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST 5-12 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH ON RIDGES UNTIL 1000...THEN BECOMING EAST/UPSLOPE 4-10 MPH BY 1300. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 8-16 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0700...THEN 2400-3400 FT AGL UNTIL 0900...THEN 5800-6800 FT AGL UNTIL 1100...THEN 10200-11200 FT AGL UNTIL 1300...THEN 13400-14400 FT AGL UNTIL 1500...THEN 14600-15600 FT AGL UNTIL 1700...THEN 12000 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0900...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1000...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1100...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 1300...THEN EXCELLENT. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .THURSDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR. MIN TEMPERATURE.....38. MAX HUMIDITY........50%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST 4-8 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 4-12 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......9800 FT AGL UNTIL 1900...QUICKLY DECREASING TO LESS THAN 1000 FT AGL BY 2200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD UNTIL 1900...THEN POOR. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY UNTIL 1200...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....72. MIN HUMIDITY........12%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 6-7 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 8-16 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 1000...THEN 3600 FT AGL UNTIL 1100...THEN 6200 FT AGL UNTIL 1200...THEN 9800-10800 FT AGL UNTIL 1500...THEN 11400-12400 FT AGL UNTIL 1700...THEN 9800 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1100...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1200...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 1500...THEN EXCELLENT UNTIL 1600...THEN VERY GOOD. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7... .SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 16 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. .SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200 UNTIL 1800...THEN CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. WEST WINDS AROUND 13 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. .MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW UNTIL 0600...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL 1200. COOLER. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH. .TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. WARMER. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. WEST WINDS AROUND 7 MPH. .WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR LOWER NORTH FORK. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 03/28-19 22 3 1 60 14 SW 6 6 2 1 W20 6184 W14 84053 G 03/28-20 22 3 1 56 16 SW 6 6 3 1 W20 3513 W13 46097 F 03/28-21 28 3 1 52 17 SW 6 6 3 1 SW18 842 SW12 8141 P 03/28-22 28 3 1 49 20 SW 7 7 3 1 SW17 684 SW13 7023 P 03/28-23 28 3 1 47 23 SW 8 8 3 1 SW16 526 W14 5906 P 03/29-00 40 3 1 46 26 SW 9 14 3 1 SW15 367 W15 4788 P 03/29-01 40 3 1 45 29 SW10 15 3 1 SW15 348 W15 4499 P 03/29-02 40 3 1 44 31 W10 16 3 1 SW17 328 W15 4211 P 03/29-03 40 3 1 43 33 W12 17 3 1 SW21 309 W15 3922 P 03/29-04 40 3 1 43 35 W13 18 3 1 SW26 333 W14 3777 P 03/29-05 40 3 1 43 37 W13 20 2 1 SW35 357 W12 3631 P 03/29-06 43 2 0 42 39 W13 20 2 1 W40 382 W10 3486 P 03/29-07 43 2 0 42 41 W12 16 2 1 W43 1998 W10 15842 P 03/29-08 43 2 0 46 35 W 9 9 2 1 W41 3614 W 9 28198 P 03/29-09 43 2 0 50 30 W 7 7 2 1 W38 5230 W 9 40554 F 03/29-10 43 2 0 55 24 W 6 6 2 1 W33 7422 W10 75484 G 03/29-11 43 2 0 59 20 NW 6 6 2 1 W28 9613 W13 110415 V 03/29-12 29 4 1 62 17 N 6 6 2 1 W24 11805 W14 145345 V 03/29-13 29 4 1 65 14 NE 6 6 2 1 W23 13220 W15 172814 E 03/29-14 29 4 1 66 13 NE 6 6 3 1 W24 14635 W16 200283 E 03/29-15 14 4 1 67 12 NE 6 6 3 1 W25 16049 W16 227751 E 03/29-16 14 4 1 67 12 NE 7 7 3 1 W26 13981 W15 189549 E 03/29-17 14 4 1 65 13 E 8 8 2 1 W26 11912 W14 151346 E 03/29-18 18 4 1 62 15 E 8 8 2 1 W26 9843 W13 113143 V 03/29-19 18 4 1 60 17 SE 7 7 2 1 W25 6983 W10 77601 G 03/29-20 18 4 1 55 20 SE 6 6 2 1 W24 4123 SW 8 42059 F 03/29-21 18 4 1 51 26 S 5 5 2 1 W22 1263 SW 6 6517 P 03/29-22 18 4 1 47 32 S 5 5 2 1 SW15 589 SW 5 2161 P 03/29-23 18 4 1 45 36 SW 5 5 2 1 SW17 413 SW 6 1701 P 03/30-00 8 3 1 44 40 SW 5 5 2 1 SW20 238 SW 6 1241 P 03/30-01 8 3 1 42 44 SW 6 6 2 1 SW21 217 SW 7 1238 P 03/30-02 8 3 1 41 47 SW 6 6 2 1 W22 196 SW 7 1235 P 03/30-03 8 3 1 40 48 SW 7 7 2 1 W22 174 SW 8 1232 P 03/30-04 8 3 1 39 50 W 7 7 2 1 W22 175 SW 8 1224 P 03/30-05 8 3 1 40 49 W 7 7 2 1 W22 176 W 8 1217 P 03/30-06 19 5 1 40 48 W 7 7 2 1 W22 176 W 8 1210 P 03/30-07 19 5 1 41 45 W 6 6 2 1 W20 392 W 8 2744 P 03/30-08 19 5 1 44 38 W 6 6 2 1 W16 608 W 8 4277 P 03/30-09 19 5 1 49 30 W 5 5 2 1 W14 824 W 8 5811 P 03/30-10 19 5 1 54 23 W 5 5 2 1 W13 3533 W10 38809 P 03/30-11 19 5 1 59 18 W 3 3 2 1 W12 6242 W12 71807 G 03/30-12 26 3 1 63 16 SE 3 3 2 1 W14 8951 W14 104805 V 03/30-13 26 3 1 66 14 SE 5 5 2 1 W17 10141 W14 122052 V 03/30-14 26 3 1 69 13 SE 6 6 2 1 W22 11331 W14 139300 V 03/30-15 26 3 1 70 12 SE 6 6 2 1 W25 12522 W15 156547 E 03/30-16 26 3 1 70 13 SE 6 6 2 1 W25 11210 W14 133689 V 03/30-17 26 3 1 68 14 SE 6 6 3 1 W24 9898 W13 110831 V 03/30-18 19 2 0 65 16 SE 6 6 3 1 W23 8586 W12 87973 G 03/30-19 19 2 0 63 18 SW 5 5 3 1 W21 5950 W 9 59714 F 03/30-20 19 2 0 59 21 W 6 6 2 1 W20 3315 W 8 31455 P 03/30-21 19 2 0 54 26 W 7 7 2 1 W20 680 W 6 3196 P 03/30-22 19 2 0 51 30 W 8 13 2 1 W20 528 W 7 2740 P 03/30-23 19 2 0 49 34 SW 8 14 2 1 W21 376 SW 8 2284 P 03/31-00 14 2 0 47 37 SW 9 15 2 1 W21 224 SW 9 1828 P 03/31-01 14 2 0 46 40 SW 9 15 2 1 W20 210 SW10 1824 P 03/31-02 14 2 0 44 42 SW 9 15 2 1 W18 195 SW10 1820 P 03/31-03 14 2 0 44 43 SW10 16 2 1 W16 181 SW12 1817 P 03/31-04 14 2 0 43 44 SW13 20 2 1 W14 188 SW13 2160 P 03/31-05 14 2 0 43 44 SW14 23 2 1 W12 194 W15 2503 P 03/31-06 18 2 0 44 42 SW16 25 2 1 W10 201 W16 2846 P 03/31-07 18 2 0 45 39 SW17 26 2 1 W10 495 W17 7451 P 03/31-08 18 2 0 47 33 SW17 28 3 1 W12 789 SW17 12057 P 03/31-09 18 2 0 52 26 SW17 28 3 1 SW15 1082 SW17 16662 P 03/31-10 18 2 0 57 20 SW18 29 3 1 SW18 2658 SW21 53733 F 03/31-11 18 2 0 61 16 SW20 30 3 1 SW23 4233 SW23 90804 G 03/31-12 23 2 0 64 13 SW20 31 3 1 SW28 5809 W25 127875 V 03/31-13 23 2 0 67 11 SW20 31 3 1 SW31 6496 SW28 155517 E 03/31-14 23 2 0 69 10 SW18 30 3 1 SW35 7183 SW29 183160 E 03/31-15 23 2 0 70 10 SW18 30 3 1 SW38 7871 SW31 210802 E 03/31-16 23 2 0 70 11 SW18 30 3 1 SW43 7420 SW32 205987 E 03/31-17 23 2 0 68 13 SW18 30 2 1 W47 6969 SW33 201172 E 03/31-18 21 3 1 65 17 SW18 30 2 1 W52 6518 SW35 196357 E KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/ WR - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.1 INCH /PERCENT/ AT - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E- EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...PISCOPO SITL T REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20120328.LOWER.02/BOU