FNUS73 KJKL 281040 FWSJKL SPOT FORECAST FOR HARLAN A...NATIONAL PARK SERVICE CUGA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 640 AM EDT WED MAR 28 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 EDT ON MARCH 28. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. ...GUSTY WINDS TODAY... .DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS KENTUCKY TODAY... PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. VERY MILD CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS BY MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL END BY LATE THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT EXITS INTO VIRGINIA AND TENNESSEE. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA...A QUIETER STRETCH OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED STARTING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT MAY BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY FRIDAY. THE UNSEASONABLY MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE BY MID AFTERNOON. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE.........60-63 AT IGNITION...MAX 77-80. HUMIDITY............60-63 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 41-44 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST 4-7 MPH AT IGNITION...BECOMING WEST SOUTH WEST AT WINDS 9-14 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH POSSIBLE. SURROUNDING RIDGE...SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH AT IGNITION...BECOMING WEST SOUTHWEST AROUND NOON AT 12-17 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE. RIDGETOP WIND.......SOUTHWEST AROUND 8 MPH AT IGNITION...BECOMING WEST SOUTHWEST AROUND NOON AT 10-15 MPH...WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH POSSIBLE. POP.................10 AT IGNITION...MAX 60 PERCENT. LAL.................1 UNTIL 1400...THEN 3 UNTIL 1700...THEN 4. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 3. MIXING HEIGHT.......900-1200 FT AGL AT IGNITION...INCREASING TO AROUND 2500 FT AGL BY NOON...6100-6400 FT AGL MAX. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 12 MPH AT IGNITION...INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 MPH AROUND NOON...BEFORE SHIFTING TO WEST SOUTHWEST AT 20 TO 25 MPH. DISPERSION INDEX....12 AT IGNITION...INCREASING TO 41 AROUND NOON...144 MAX. TIME (EDT) 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM 6 PM SKY (%).........50 53 57 58 68 WEATHER COV..... ISOLTD SCTTRD SCTTRD WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............61 63 74 76 74 RH..............60 55 45 44 48 20 FT WIND......SW 9 SW 11 WSW 12 WSW 14 WSW 14 20 FT WIND GUST.20 25 25 30 30 HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS EARLY...THEN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE AT NIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....MIN 52. MAX HUMIDITY........MAX 78 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WEST AROUND 8-12 MPH...SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 0100 AT 4 TO 8 MPH...SHIFTING TO NORTH AT 3 TO 6 MPH BY 0600. SURROUNDING RIDGE...WEST AROUND 10-15 MPH...SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 0100 AT 6-11 MPH...SHIFTING TO NORTH AT 5-10 MPH BY 0600. RIDGETOP WIND.......WEST AROUND 11 MPH...SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 0100 AT AROUND 9 MPH...SHIFTING TO NORTH AROUND 7 MPH BY 0600. POP.................70 PERCENT. LAL.................4 UNTIL 2200...THEN 3 UNTIL 2400...THEN 2 UNTIL 0400...THEN 1. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TIME (EDT) 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM 6 AM SKY (%).........81 74 70 62 47 39 WEATHER COV.....NUMRUS SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD ISOLTD WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE TEMP............69 67 60 59 56 54 RH..............59 70 78 83 83 82 20 FT WIND......W 9 W 7 W 6 NW 5 NW 6 N 5 20 FT WIND GUST.15 10 10 10 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 3 3 3 $$ FORECASTER...PELTON REQUESTED BY...SHANE STURGILL TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20120328.HARLA.01/JKL