FNUS73 KPAH 281243 FWSPAH SPOT FORECAST FOR SIMPSON...USFS SHAWNEE NF NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 743 AM CDT WED MAR 28 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0930 CDT ON MARCH 28. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... A COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD INTO THE QUAD STATE REGION TODAY...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THE FRONT STALLS OUT JUST TO OUR SOUTH ON THURSDAY...A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER MAINLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE.........67 AT IGNITION...MAX 80. RH..................73 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 43 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS WEST AT 8 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CWR.................0 PERCENT INCREASING TO 20 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4. MIXING HEIGHT.......1400 FT AGL AT IGNITION...INCREASING TO 2800-4300 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 4600-6400 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 2900 FT AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 13 TO 18 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 10 TO 14 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (CDT) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM SKY (%).........PC PC PC PC PC PC PC PC PC PC WEATHER COV..... SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW TEMP............65 68 71 73 75 77 78 78 78 76 RH..............76 71 65 61 56 51 46 44 47 52 20 FT WIND DIR..SW W W W W W W W NW NW 20 FT WIND SPD..6 6 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 5 MIX HGT (KFT)...0.8 1.4 2.8 4.3 5.5 6.2 6.4 5.9 4.6 2.9 TRANSP WIND DIR.W W W W W W W W W W TRANSP WIND SPD.20 21 21 18 16 15 14 13 10 8 CWR.............0 0 0 0 20 20 20 20 20 20 HAINES INDEX....3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 52. RH..................MAX 82 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT NORTH WINDS. CWR.................0 PERCENT. MIXING HEIGHT.......1400 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 200-400 FT AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 5 TO 9 MPH. TIME (CDT) 7 PM 9 PM 11 PM 1 AM 3 AM 5 AM SKY (%).........PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY WEATHER COV.....S CHC S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE NONE NONE TEMP............73 66 62 60 57 55 RH..............57 63 67 72 75 78 20 FT WIND......NW 3 N 2 N 2 N 2 NE 3 NE 4 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 5 5 MIX HGT (FT)....1400 400 200 300 400 300 TRANSPORT WIND..W 6 N 5 N 5 NE 7 NE 9 NE 9 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MAX 74. RH..................MIN 36 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2500-4100 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 3800-5200 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 2100 FT AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 7 TO 10 MPH. TIME (CDT) 7 AM 10 AM 1 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........MCLDY PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............53 61 69 73 RH..............80 62 51 41 20 FT WIND......NE 4G5 E 5G10 E 4G5 E 4G5 MIX HGT (FT)....300 1700 4100 5000 TRANSPORT WIND..E 8 E 10 SE 7 S 7 CWR.............0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 4 $$ FORECASTER...PRESLEY REQUESTED BY...FRANK PAUKERT TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20120328.SIMPS.01/PAH