FNUS74 KAMA 291004 AAA FWSAMA SPOT FORECAST FOR BUFFALO LAKE WMU RX...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX 504 AM CDT THU MAR 29 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 CDT ON MARCH 29. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... THIS IS AN UPDATE BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY BETWEEN 10 AM AND 1 PM CDT. THROUGH THE DAY WINDS SHOULD STAY NEAR OR BELOW 15 MPH. A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE AT THE BURN SITE LATE THIS EVENING...AROUND 10 PM CDT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL IN THE CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE...THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT. VARIOUS COMPUTER MODELS SHOW THE ARRIVAL ANYTIME BETWEEN 7 PM CDT AND 4 AM CDT...BUT THINK 10 PM IS THE MOST LIKELY. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHERLY...AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEASTERLY. WIND SPEEDS WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD STAY BELOW 15 MPH. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES...THOUGH AS LOW AS 9 PERCENT TODAY...SHOULD RECOVER QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET...AND INCREASE EVEN MORE BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH COOLER WEATHER ON TAP FOR TOMORROW...EXPECT THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO REMAIN ABOVE 20 PERCENT THROUGH THE DAY. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 85. MIN HUMIDITY........8 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 7 TO 14 MPH. CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT. LAL.................1. HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......0-1000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 18500-19500 FT AGL. MIXING WINDS........WEST 12 TO 17 MPH. TIME (CDT) 9 AM 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM SKY (%).........MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............53 66 76 83 85 RH..............71 39 23 13 9 20 FT WIND......SW 13 W 12 W 7 W 8 W 10 20 FT WIND GUST.20 15 10 10 15 CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....6 6 6 6 6 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (20-30 PERCENT). MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 46. MAX HUMIDITY........74 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 6 TO 12 MPH. CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT. LAL.................1. HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......18500-19000 FT AGL DECREASING TO 0 FT AGL. MIXING WINDS........NORTH 7 TO 14 MPH. TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............84 73 63 58 53 50 RH..............8 13 22 31 42 54 20 FT WIND......W 10 W 9 NW 6 N 8 N 8 N 6 20 FT WIND GUST.15 10 10 10 10 10 CHC OF PCPN (%).0 10 10 10 10 10 HAINES INDEX....6 6 6 6 6 6 .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 78. MIN HUMIDITY........25 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 6 TO 7 MPH. CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT. LAL.................1. HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......0-1500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4000-5500 FT AGL. MIXING WINDS........NORTHEAST 6 TO 12 MPH. TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........MCLEAR PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............47 47 57 67 74 78 RH..............65 74 59 43 33 25 20 FT WIND......N 7 N 7 NE 6 E 6 E 6 NE 6 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 10 10 10 CHC OF PCPN (%).10 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....6 6 6 6 4 4 $$ FORECASTER...JOHNSON REQUESTED BY...JOHN HAWKINS TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20120329.BUFFA.01/AMA