FNUS73 KDMX 291319 FWSDMX SPOT FORECAST FOR LAKE RED ROCK...US ARMY COE-REDROCK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 819 AM CDT THU MAR 29 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1030 CDT ON MARCH 29. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. AN INITIAL OBSERVATION AT IGNITION AND A MID BURN OBSERVATION ARE REQUIRED... PLEASE RELAY THEM TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR EACH PRESCRIBED BURN. .DISCUSSION... SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY JUST BRUSH LAKE RED ROCK THIS MORNING BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WOULD BE LIGHT. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE DAKOTAS AND NEBRASKA WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD AND MAY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON WEST AND STATEWIDE LATER TONIGHT. FAIR AND MILD WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 67. MIN HUMIDITY........56 PERCENT. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 16 MPH. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2900 FT AGL. MIXING WINDS........EAST 12 TO 21 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST 23 TO 29 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO EXCELLENT (11700-64800 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT TO EXCELLENT (65100-68900 KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 16 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. TIME (CDT) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM SKY (%).........60 65 70 72 73 73 74 75 76 WEATHER COV.....SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW TSTM COV........SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT TEMP............56 58 61 63 64 65 66 66 65 RH..............62 62 60 60 58 58 56 56 60 20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE 20 FT WIND SPD..14 15 16 16 16 15 15 15 14 20 FT WIND GUST.20 20 20 25 25 20 20 20 20 EYE LVL WND DIR.SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE EYE LVL WND SPD.10 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 EYE LVL WND GST.20 20 20 25 25 20 20 20 20 MIX HGT (KFT)...1.8 2.0 2.3 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.9 2.8 2.6 MIXNG WIND DIR..E SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE MIXNG WIND SPD..21 23 24 25 26 28 28 29 29 HAINES INDEX....3 3 4 4 4 3 3 3 4 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 53. MAX HUMIDITY........96 PERCENT. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 14 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 9 TO 10 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2500 FT AGL DECREASING TO 400 FT AGL AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIXING WINDS........SOUTHEAST 20 TO 28 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST 10 TO 18 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING...THEN SHIFTING TO THE WEST EARLY IN THE MORNING. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO EXCELLENT (4700-60600 KNOT-FT) DECREASING TO POOR TO POOR (2300-3200 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 14 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 9 TO 10 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. TIME (CDT) 7 PM 9 PM 11 PM 1 AM 3 AM 5 AM SKY (%).........76 82 91 98 88 73 WEATHER COV.....PERIOD PERIOD PERIOD LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TSTM COV........PERIOD PERIOD PERIOD LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY TEMP............65 63 60 59 58 55 RH..............60 67 75 80 80 90 20 FT WIND......SE 14 SE 13 SE 13 SE 12 SW 9 W 9 20 FT WIND GUST.20 15 15 15 10 10 EYE LEVEL WIND..SE 10 SE 9 SE 9 SE 9 SW 6 W 6 EYE LVL WND GST.20 15 15 15 10 10 MIX HGT (FT)....2500 1400 900 800 400 300 MIXNG WIND......SE 28 SE 22 SE 20 SE 18 S 13 SW 12 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 3 3 3 $$ FORECASTER...SMALL REQUESTED BY...HUGH HOWE TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20120329.LAKER.01/DMX