FNUS73 KILX 291327 FWSILX SPOT FORECAST FOR EMIQUON NWR SOUTH GLOBE...THE NATURE CONSERVANCY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN, IL 827 AM CDT THU MAR 29 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 CDT ON MARCH 29. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BRING EASTERLY WINDS TO THE AREA TODAY...THEN TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WINDS WILL GO FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO WEST AND THEN NORTHWESTERLY WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. AN AREA OF RAIN TO THE WEST OF THE THE PRESCRIBED BURN AREA IS SLOWLY PUSHING INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS. DRY AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS ERODING THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE RAINFALL...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS MORNING. MID LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE SHOWERS AND A STRONG INVERSION FROM THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL LIMIT THE MIXING HEIGHT THIS MORNING. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 68. MIN HUMIDITY........45 PERCENT. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....EAST WINDS 6 TO 12 MPH. WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 6 TO 12 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT. MIXING HEIGHT.......2000 FT AGL AROUND IGNITION TIME INCREASING TO 2400-3500 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 10 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST 16 TO 18 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (32000-33000 MPH-FT) AT IGNITION TIME...POOR TO FAIR (0-56119 MPH-FT) INCR FAIR (58994 MPH-FT) LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (CDT) 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............56 68 65 64 64 WEATHER COV.........CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE........RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP................49 54 60 65 67 RH..................68 61 51 46 45 20 FT WIND..........E 6 E 8 E 9 E 10 E 10 20 FT WIND GUST.....15 15 15 15 15 EYE LEVEL WIND......E 5 E 6 E 7 E 7 E 7 EYE LEVEL GUST......15 15 15 15 15 MIX HGT (FT)........700 2000 2600 3200 3500 TRANSPORT WIND......E 12 E 18 SE 17 SE 16 SE 16 CWR.................30 30 30 30 30 HAINES INDEX........4 4 4 4 4 VRATE MPH-FT/1000...12 37 44 50 56 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 56. MAX HUMIDITY........80 PERCENT. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 12 MPH. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 12 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCE OF PCPN......80 PERCENT. MIXING HEIGHT.......1900-3100 FT AGL DECREASING TO 300-1100 FT AGL IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 16 TO 21 MPH. HAINES INDEX........2 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (4600-59339 MPH-FT). TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).............68 71 79 87 89 86 WEATHER COV.........CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE OCNL OCNL WEATHER TYPE........RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP................67 64 62 61 59 58 RH..................47 54 60 65 75 80 20 FT WIND..........E 10 E 10 SE 10 SE 9 SE 9 S 8 20 FT WIND GUST.....15 15 15 15 15 15 EYE LEVEL WIND......E 7 E 7 SE 7 SE 7 SE 7 S 6 EYE LEVEL GUST......15 15 15 15 15 15 MIX HGT (FT)........3100 1900 500 300 400 500 TRANSPORT WIND......SE 20 SE 21 SE 18 SE 16 SE 17 S 20 CWR.................30 50 50 50 80 80 HAINES INDEX........4 3 2 2 2 3 VRATE MPH-FT/1000...59 41 9 5 7 9 $$ FORECASTER...HJS REQUESTED BY...THARRAN HOBSON TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20120329.EMIQU.01/ILX