FNUS72 KJAX 291122
FWSJAX

SPOT FORECAST FOR BS 1A  1B...FLORIDA PARK SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
722 AM EDT THU MAR 29 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 EDT ON MARCH 29.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY LEADING TO MIN RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES APPROACHING RED FLAG CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ERC AND DISPERSION VALUES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SUPPORT THE NEED FOR RED
FLAG WARNINGS. WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH
HIGH LAVORI VALUES OVERNIGHT. EXPECT FOG AND FOG TOP HOVER NEAR THE
FIRE AREA SHOULD IT BE PRODUCING SMOKE AFTER SUNSET. THERE WILL BE A
20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG THEN SUNNY (20-30
                    PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....NEAR 86.
MIN HUMIDITY........35 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WEST 4 TO 8 MPH LATE DURING
                    THE MORNING.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......100-1200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4500-5500 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........
DISPERSION INDEX....39.
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
LVORI...............1.

TIME (EDT)      11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
SKY (%).........26     32     31     30
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............75     82     85     85
RH..............51     40     37     39
20 FT WIND......SW 5   W 7    W 8    W 8
20 FT WIND GUST.       10     10     10
MIX HGT (FT)....3700   5100   5500   5300
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 5   W 10   W 10   W 10
LVORI...........2      1      1      1
DISPERSION INDX.3      36     38     43
CHC OF PCPN (%).0      0      10     10
LAL.............1      1      1      1

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (20-30 PERCENT).
                    PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....NEAR 55.
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3700-4700 FT AGL DECREASING TO 100-600 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........WEST 3 TO 12 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 1 TO
                    2 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
DISPERSION INDEX....1.
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
LVORI...............10.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........29     27     24     24     26     28
WEATHER COV.....                                   PATCHY
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   FOG
TEMP............83     73     65     60     58     57
RH..............43     63     80     91     95     100
20 FT WIND......W 7    SW 6   SW 5   W 3    W 2    W 1
20 FT WIND GUST.10     10            5
MIX HGT (FT)....4700   2600   1300   600    300    100
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 9   W 12   W 9    W 6    W 2    W 1
LVORI...........1      1      4      7      9      10
DISPERSION INDX.48     36     15     2      1      1
CHC OF PCPN (%).10     10     0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PATCHY MORNING FOG. MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT).
                    WITH A CHANCE OF LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....NEAR 84.
MIN HUMIDITY........48 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH LATE
                    IN THE MORNING.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1500...THEN 3.
MIXING HEIGHT.......100-2000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3100-4200 FT AGL
                    LATE IN THE MORNING.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 0 TO 8 MPH INCREASING TO 10 TO 13 MPH
                    LATE IN THE MORNING.
DISPERSION INDEX....43.
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.
LVORI...............10 DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS DECREASING AFTER
                    9 AM AS SUN ANGLES INCREASE AND THE INVERSION BREAKS.

$$
FORECASTER...SANDRIK
REQUESTED BY...DYLAN SHOEMAKER
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20120329.BS1A1.01/JAX