FNUS72 KMHX 291318 FWSMHX SPOT FORECAST FOR 3 1 4 LAUREL BAY...ALLIGATOR RIVER NWR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 918 AM EDT THU MAR 29 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 EDT ON MARCH 29. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... ...ENHANCED FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON... A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST AND GUST UP TO 20 MPH AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL PLUMMET OVER THE BURN AREA...WITH MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH VALS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S PERCENTILE. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY TOWARDS SUNSET AS MIXING RAPIDLY SUBSIDES. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 74. MIN HUMIDITY........35 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 10 TO 13 MPH. HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......MAX 6600 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 13 TO 21 MPH. TIME (EDT) 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM SKY (%).............26 28 26 16 WEATHER COV......... WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE NONE TSTM COV............ TEMP................70 72 74 74 RH..................49 39 35 37 20 FT WIND..........NW 12 NW 10 N 9 N 9 20 FT WIND GUST.....20 20 15 15 LVORI...............1 1 1 1 ADI.................56 57 54 51 HAINES INDEX........5 4 4 4 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 53. MAX HUMIDITY........72 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH UNTIL EARLY MORNING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE...THEN BECOMING NORTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH LATE. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5 OR VERY LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......MIN 300 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 5 TO 13 MPH...DECREASING TO AROUND 3 MPH LATE. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).............12 5 11 11 12 13 WEATHER COV......... WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TSTM COV............ TEMP................71 66 62 58 57 55 RH..................41 52 60 69 69 72 20 FT WIND..........N 8 N 7 NE 6 NE 5 NE 5 NE 4 20 FT WIND GUST.....15 10 10 5 LVORI...............1 2 3 3 3 3 ADI.................56 5 5 3 3 2 HAINES INDEX........4 4 5 5 4 3 .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 64. MIN HUMIDITY........58 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......MAX 3400 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 5 TO 13 MPH. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............13 14 32 56 74 78 WEATHER COV......... WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TSTM COV............ TEMP................54 53 51 58 64 64 RH..................71 69 83 69 58 65 20 FT WIND..........NE 5 NE 5 NE 6 E 6 SE 6 SE 6 20 FT WIND GUST..... 10 10 10 10 LVORI...............3 3 5 3 2 3 ADI.................2 5 5 16 21 26 HAINES INDEX........3 3 4 4 4 4 $$ FORECASTER...LONKA REQUESTED BY...HELEN CZERNIK TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20120329.314LA.04/MHX