FNUS73 KPAH 291339 FWSPAH SPOT FORECAST FOR DENNISON HOLLOW...USFS SHAWNEE NF NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 839 AM CDT THU MAR 29 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1030 CDT ON MARCH 29. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... THE PRESCRIBED BURN IS INITIALLY GOING TO BE RIGHT ON THE THE STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS MORNING. CLOUD COVER MAY BE A LITTLE SLOWER TO THIN OUT UNTIL THE EARLY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAY ALSO BE A LITTLE SLOWER TO DROP MARKEDLY AT IGNITION AND THROUGH NOON. THERE WILL BE SOME VERTICAL MIXING...SO MIXING HEIGHTS SHOULD NOT BE AN FOR MOVING ABOVE THE 1700 FOOT MINIMUMS. THERE WILL BE AT LEAST 10 TO 15 MPH SOUTH...SOUTHEAST MIXING HEIGHT WINDS AT IGNITION...BUT ANY SIGNIFICANT RISE IN THE SMOKE PLUME WILL NOT LIKELY OCCUR UNTIL THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM BY IGNITION TIME AND ANY RE-ESTABLISHMENT OF AN INVERSION BELOW 1700 MINIMUMS SHOULD NOT TAKE PLACE UNTIL THE 10 PM TO MIDNIGHT TIME FRAME. EXTENDED NOTE...BETTER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...BELOW 40 PERCENT...WILL BE MORE LIKELY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEKEND...AND BELOW 35 PERCENT LATE NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE.........69 AT IGNITION...MAX 77. RH..................56 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 44 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS EAST AT 6 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5 TO 6 MPH. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4. MIXING HEIGHT.......2500 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 1400-2900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5800-7000 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 8 TO 12 MPH. TIME (CDT) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM SKY (%).........MC MC MC MC MC PC PC PC PC WEATHER COV..... SCH SCH SCH WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW TEMP............66 69 71 73 74 75 76 76 75 RH..............56 55 53 51 51 50 48 48 52 20 FT WIND DIR..E E E E SE SE SE SE E 20 FT WIND SPD..5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 15 15 10 10 10 10 10 MIX HGT (KFT)...2.1 2.5 2.9 3.4 4.1 5.0 5.8 6.5 7.0 TRANSP WIND DIR.SE S S S S S S S S TRANSP WIND SPD.9 9 10 10 10 10 12 12 12 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 59. RH..................MAX 90 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT...THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......5700-7200 FT AGL DECREASING TO 700-2200 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 13 TO 22 MPH INCREASING TO 23 TO 24 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. TIME (CDT) 7 PM 9 PM 11 PM 1 AM 3 AM 5 AM SKY (%).........PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY WEATHER COV.....S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE NONE TEMP............73 68 65 64 62 61 RH..............55 63 70 73 81 87 20 FT WIND......E 4 SE 3 SE 3 SE 2 S 2 S 3 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 5 5 5 10 MIX HGT (FT)....7200 5700 3400 1400 700 800 TRANSPORT WIND..S 13 S 15 S 18 SW 21 SW 23 SW 24 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....4 4 3 3 3 4 .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE.........MAX 78. RH..................MIN 48 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 6 TO 12 MPH. CWR.................0 PERCENT INCREASING TO 40 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1300-2800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3400-4700 FT AGL IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 22 TO 25 MPH. TIME (CDT) 7 AM 10 AM 1 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........PCLDY PCLDY MCLDY MCLDY WEATHER COV..... S CHC CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............60 68 76 77 RH..............90 70 56 52 20 FT WIND......SW 5G10 SW 7G15 SW 9G20 W 9G20 MIX HGT (FT)....1300 2800 4300 4700 TRANSPORT WIND..SW 24 SW 25 SW 25 W 23 CWR.............0 0 40 40 HAINES INDEX....4 4 3 3 $$ FORECASTER...SMITH REQUESTED BY...SCOTT CRIST TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20120329.DENNI.01/PAH