FNUS73 KPAH 291206 FWSPAH SPOT FORECAST FOR LINE 12...USFWS, CRAB ORCHARD NWR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 706 AM CDT THU MAR 29 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 CDT ON MARCH 29. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY TODAY OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST KENTUCKY. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE HEARTLAND IN VICINITY OF THE STALLED OUT FRONT TODAY AND FRIDAY...BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PUSHES THE RAIN OUT OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST ACROSS THE HEARTLAND FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. A QUICK CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN ON MONDAY...MOVING OUT MONDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER WILL THEN RETURN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS EXPECTED... RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL INTO THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE LOWERD RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND LIGHTER WINDS WILL BE HELPFUL FOR THE REDUCTION OF FINE FUELS...SUCH AS LEAF LITTER AND DUFF. HOWEVER...OVERALL GREEN-UP CONDITIONS AND LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS ON SUNDAY AND WEDNESDAY MAY LEAD TO SOME CONTROL ISSUES FOR SPECIFIC PRESCIBED BURNS. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE.........64 AT IGNITION...MAX 78. RH..................70 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 44 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS EAST AT 5 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5 TO 6 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4. MIXING HEIGHT.......2100 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 1400-3100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6200-7000 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 7 TO 13 MPH. TIME (CDT) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM SKY (%).........MC MC PC PC PC PC PC PC PC PC WEATHER COV..... SCH SCH SCH SCH WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW TEMP............64 66 69 72 74 75 76 77 76 76 RH..............70 65 61 57 53 52 50 48 52 54 20 FT WIND DIR..E E E SE SE SE SE SE SE SE 20 FT WIND SPD..4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 15 15 15 10 10 10 10 MIX HGT (KFT)...2.1 2.6 3.1 3.6 4.1 4.8 5.5 6.2 6.7 7.0 TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S S S S TRANSP WIND SPD.8 8 9 9 10 10 10 12 12 13 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 59. RH..................MAX 90 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT...THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 6 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......5500-7000 FT AGL DECREASING TO 700-2200 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 13 TO 22 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 23 TO 25 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. TIME (CDT) 7 PM 9 PM 11 PM 1 AM 3 AM 5 AM SKY (%).........PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY WEATHER COV.....S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............74 69 66 64 62 61 RH..............57 66 70 78 84 87 20 FT WIND......SE 4 SE 3 SE 3 S 3 S 4 SW 5 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 5 10 10 10 MIX HGT (FT)....7000 5500 3300 1400 700 800 TRANSPORT WIND..S 13 S 16 S 20 SW 23 SW 24 SW 25 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....4 4 3 3 3 4 .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE MORNING. TEMPERATURE.........MAX 78. RH..................MIN 50 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 6 TO 11 MPH. CWR.................0 PERCENT INCREASING TO 40 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1200-2700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5300-5400 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 21 TO 25 MPH. TIME (CDT) 7 AM 10 AM 1 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........PCLDY PCLDY MCLDY MCLDY WEATHER COV..... S CHC CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............60 69 75 77 RH..............90 70 60 54 20 FT WIND......SW 5G10 SW 7G15 SW 9G20 W 8G20 MIX HGT (FT)....1200 2700 4300 5300 TRANSPORT WIND..SW 25 SW 25 SW 25 W 23 CWR.............0 0 40 30 HAINES INDEX....4 4 3 3 $$ FORECASTER...PACKETT REQUESTED BY...RAY PARRISH TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20120329.LINE1.02/PAH