FNUS75 KBYZ 281636 FWSBYZ SPOT FORECAST FOR PICKET PIN RX...USFS, CUSTER, BEARTOOTH RD NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT 1036 AM MDT WED MAR 28 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 MDT ON MARCH 30. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... WINDY PATTERN SETTING UP ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE BEARTOOTH MOUNTAINS FOR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. BASED ON PORTABLE RAWS OBSERVATIONS OVER THE PAST 10 DAYS EXPECT SHELTERING TO KEEP SUSTAINED WINDS DOWN IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S DURING WINDIEST PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...HOWEVER WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE IN THE 40 TO 50 MPH RANGE. STRONGER WINDS WILL BE PRESENT SOUTHEAST OF THE UNIT AND THIS COULD CAUSE ERRATIC CONDITIONS ON THE LOWER END OF THE UNIT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S TO POSSIBLY LOW 60S DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH RH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S. A STRONGER PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF WETTING RAIN TO THE BURN AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY... WITH SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS DEVELOP FOR TUESDAY. WIND WISE THE LOWER END OF THE UNIT IS THE BIGGEST CONCERN DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF STRONGER VALLEY WINDS CREATING EDDIES THAT MAY RESULT IN VERY ERRATIC WINDS. THE UPPER PORTION OF THE UNIT IS LIKELY TO BE MORE UNIFORM WITH CHIMNEY EFFECTS PULLING WINDS UP SLOPE. ADDITIONAL BELT WEATHER WEATHER OBSERVATIONS FROM THE LOWER PORTION OF THE UNIT WOULD BE HELPFUL IN DETERMINING HOW BIG AN IMPACT THESE STRONGER STILLWATER VALLEY WINDS HAVE. CHAMBERS .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. CWR.................8 PERCENT. LAL.................1...NO THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....54-59. MIN HUMIDITY........28-33 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........ SLOPE/VALLEY.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 18 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. RIDGETOP...........WEST 25 TO 40 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......9800 FT AGL. MIXING WINDS........WEST 30 TO 45 MPH. .THURSDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS. CWR.................12 PERCENT. LAL.................1...NO THUNDERSTORMS. MIN TEMPERATURE.....35-40. MAX HUMIDITY........68-73 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........ SLOPE/VALLEY.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 12 TO 18 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH...INCREASING TO 14 TO 22 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH OVERNIGHT. RIDGETOP...........WEST 35 TO 50 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2400 FT AGL. MIXING WINDS........WEST 40 TO 60 MPH. .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. CWR.................15 PERCENT. LAL.................1...NO THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....56-61. MIN HUMIDITY........27-32 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........ SLOPE/VALLEY.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 14 TO 22 GUSTING TO 45 MPH IN THE MORNING...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 8 TO 18 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. RIDGETOP...........WEST 40 TO 60 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......5000 FT AGL. MIXING WINDS........WEST 40 TO 60 MPH. .FRIDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. CWR.................15 PERCENT. LAL.................1...NO THUNDERSTORMS. MIN TEMPERATURE.....35-40. MAX HUMIDITY........60-68 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........ SLOPE/VALLEY.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 18 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH. RIDGETOP...........WEST 35 TO 50 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2000 FT AGL. MIXING WINDS........WEST 40 TO 60 MPH. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .SATURDAY... MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS 35 TO 40. HIGHS 53 TO 58. SOUTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 18 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH. .SUNDAY... MOSTLY CLOUDY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY AND NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS 29 TO 34. HIGHS 44 TO 54. WEST WINDS 6 TO 15 MPH. .MONDAY... MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS 23 TO 28. HIGHS 41 TO 46. WEST WINDS 6 TO 12 MPH. $$ FORECASTER...CHAMBERS REQUESTED BY...DREW GRIMES TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20120330.PICKE.01/BYZ