FNUS73 KPAH 301312 FWSPAH SPOT FORECAST FOR DENNISON HOLLOW...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 812 AM CDT FRI MAR 30 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 CDT ON MARCH 30. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... THE PRECIPITATION FREE WINDOW FOR THE PRESCRIBED BURN WILL BE SHORT TODAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE PRESCRIBED BURN AREA AROUND 1 PM CDT...INCREASING SHARPLY DURING THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS /2-5 PM CDT/. SOME OF THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD BECOME STRONG...WITH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS THE PRIMARY CONCERN. THE WINDS WILL BE ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE ASPECT OF THE PRESCRIBED BURN AREA...BUT WITH STRONGER WIND GUSTS EXPECTED FROM IGNITION TIME ONWARD INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...THE DIRECTION OF SMOKE DISPERSION MAY BE ERRATIC. COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE HIGHER. WITH THE POOLING OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE RAIN CHANCES...THIS MAY REDUCE THE EFFECTIVE DRYING RATE OF THE TIMBER. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE.........73 AT IGNITION...MAX 80. RH..................60 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 46 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTHWEST AT 11 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WEST 6 TO 13 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH. CWR.................0 PERCENT INCREASING TO 26 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4. MIXING HEIGHT.......1300-3100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3800 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 3800-5000 FT AGL IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 23 TO 26 MPH. TIME (CDT) 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM SKY (%).........MCR PC PC PC PC PC PC MC WEATHER COV..... ISO ISO SCT SCT SCT WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW TEMP............73 75 77 78 79 78 77 75 RH..............60 56 53 51 49 50 52 56 20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW SW SW SW W 20 FT WIND SPD..9 10 10 10 10 9 7 6 20 FT WIND GUST.20 20 25 25 25 20 20 15 MIX HGT (KFT)...3.8 4.4 4.8 5.0 5.0 5.0 4.8 4.5 TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW SW SW SW SW W W TRANSP WIND SPD.24 24 23 23 24 24 24 23 CWR.............0 0 20 20 20 30 30 30 HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT). SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE EVENING. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 54. RH..................MAX 93 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2700-4200 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1000-2200 FT AGL IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 14 TO 23 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH 12 TO 13 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. TIME (CDT) 7 PM 9 PM 11 PM 1 AM 3 AM 5 AM SKY (%).........MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY PCLDY MCLEAR PCLDY WEATHER COV.....SCTTRD SCTTRD ISOLTD WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE NONE NONE TEMP............73 69 65 61 59 57 RH..............60 70 80 88 92 93 20 FT WIND......W 5 W 4 W 2 NW 2 N 2 N 2 20 FT WIND GUST.15 10 5 5 5 5 MIX HGT (FT)....4200 3300 2200 1400 1000 1000 TRANSPORT WIND..W 23 W 21 W 17 NW 14 NW 13 N 12 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 3 .SATURDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MAX 76. RH..................MIN 43 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1300-2900 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 3 TO 10 MPH. TIME (CDT) 7 AM 10 AM 1 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........PCLDY MCLEAR PCLDY PCLDY WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............56 65 72 75 RH..............90 64 51 46 20 FT WIND......NE 3G10 NE 3G10 NE 3G5 NE 2G5 MIX HGT (FT)....1300 2100 2900 2700 TRANSPORT WIND..N 10 N 7 N 3 NE 3 CWR.............0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....3 4 5 5 $$ FORECASTER...SMITH REQUESTED BY...SCOTT CRIST TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20120330.DENNI.01/PAH