FNUS73 KPAH 301534 FWSPAH SPOT FORECAST FOR SPILLWAY...USFWS CRAB ORCHARD NWR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 1034 AM CDT FRI MAR 30 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1200 CDT ON MARCH 30. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... FROM IGNITION TIME THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 3 PM CDT...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE LIMITED AROUND THE PRESCRIBED BURN AREA...BUT COVERAGE WILL INCREASE DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE WIND FLOW SHOULD BE UPSLOPE THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER WIND GUSTS AND HIGHER TRANSPORT WINDS...DISPERSION THROUGH THE MIXING LAYER SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE.........75 AT IGNITION...MAX 80. RH..................58 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 50 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTHWEST AT 11 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 12 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. CWR.................0 PERCENT INCREASING TO 26 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4. MIXING HEIGHT.......1200-2800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3900 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 3300-4800 FT AGL IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 20 TO 29 MPH. TIME (CDT) 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM SKY (%).........PC PC PC PC MC MC MC WEATHER COV..... ISO ISO ISO SCT SCT SCT WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW RW TEMP............76 78 79 80 78 78 76 RH..............56 54 53 54 55 55 58 20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW SW SW W 20 FT WIND SPD..9 10 10 10 9 7 6 20 FT WIND GUST.20 20 25 20 20 15 15 MIX HGT (KFT)...3.9 4.3 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.8 4.7 TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW SW SW W W W TRANSP WIND SPD.23 22 22 22 21 21 20 CWR.............0 20 20 20 30 30 30 HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 3 3 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 54. RH..................MAX 94 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT...THEN BECOMING NORTH AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2900-4400 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1000-2300 FT AGL IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 12 TO 20 MPH BECOMING SOUTH 1 TO 10 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. TIME (CDT) 7 PM 9 PM 11 PM 1 AM 3 AM 5 AM SKY (%).........MCLDY PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY WEATHER COV.....ISOLTD ISOLTD WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............74 69 65 61 59 57 RH..............62 73 82 88 91 93 20 FT WIND......W 5 W 3 W 2 NW 2 N 2 N 4 20 FT WIND GUST.10 5 5 5 5 10 MIX HGT (FT)....4400 3500 2300 1400 1000 1000 TRANSPORT WIND..W 20 W 16 NW 14 NW 10 W 6 SW 2 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 3 .SATURDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MAX 77. RH..................MIN 44 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING BECOMING LIGHT. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1300-3100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3500-4600 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 0 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST 0 TO 7 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TIME (CDT) 7 AM 10 AM 1 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........PCLDY MCLEAR PCLDY MCLDY WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............56 65 73 76 RH..............91 66 52 47 20 FT WIND......NE 4G10 NE 3G10 E 2G5 E 2G5 MIX HGT (FT)....1300 2100 3100 4200 TRANSPORT WIND..S 0 SE 0 NE 2 E 5 CWR.............0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....3 4 4 3 $$ FORECASTER...SMITH REQUESTED BY...RAY PARRISH TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20120330.SPILL.01/PAH