FNUS71 KRNK 292322 FWSRNK SPOT FORECAST FOR KELLY FLATS...USDA-FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 722 PM EDT THU MAR 29 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 EDT ON MARCH 30. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE FOCUS AGAIN FOR THE BEST COVERAGE WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND MAINLY AFTER 2 PM FRIDAY. 20 FOOT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT DUE TO A SURFACE INVERSION EARLY FRIDAY...MIXING OUT TO MORE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON AROUND 10-12 MPH...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 15-20 MPH POSSIBLE. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL BE A BIT MORE LOW CONFIDENCE PENDING TIMING OF THICKER CLOUD ARRIVAL IN THE AFTERNOON. EARLIER ARRIVAL COULD KEEP MIXING HEIGHTS BELOW 3000 FEET WHILE LATER MAY ALLOW IT TO PUSH TO AROUND 4500 FEET. LOOKS LIKE SHOULD REBOUND TO BETWEEN 3500-4000 FEET BASED ON LATEST MODEL DATA AT THIS POINT. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...POTENTIALLY HIGHER THAN THOSE EXPECTED TODAY. RH VALUES COULD FALL TO 30 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN MAX MIXING OCCURS ALSO DEPENDING UPON THE TIMING OF A DRY COLD FRONT CROSSING LATER SATURDAY. WINDS AND WIND GUSTS MAY WEAKEN ENOUGH SUCH THAT SUNDAY MAY BE A GOOD DAY TO BURN IF STORMS REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED FROM NOW UNTIL SUNDAY. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (15-25 PERCENT). MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 45. MAX HUMIDITY........68 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH IN THE EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. CWR (0.01 IN).......0 PERCENT. MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 8 TO 17 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 7 MPH LATE. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).............2 7 13 18 23 34 WEATHER COV......... WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TSTM COV............ TEMP................62 56 51 48 46 45 RH..................32 38 45 52 58 62 20 FT WIND..........NW 6 NW 5 NW 5 NW 4 NW 3 SW 2 20 FT WIND GUST.....15 10 10 5 5 5 CWR.................0 0 0 0 0 0 .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE MORNING. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 65. MIN HUMIDITY........50 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 9 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. CWR (0.01 IN).......30 PERCENT. MIXING HEIGHT.......2100 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 3600 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 10 TO 16 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 21 TO 22 MPH LATE. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............44 50 55 62 71 69 WEATHER COV......... S CHC S CHC CHANCE WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TSTM COV............ S CHC CHANCE TEMP................45 47 53 58 61 64 RH..................64 65 57 55 53 51 20 FT WIND..........S 2 S 3 S 4 S 5 S 6 SW 7 20 FT WIND GUST.....5 5 10 10 15 15 CWR.................0 10 10 20 20 30 $$ FORECASTER...HUDGINS REQUESTED BY...DAVE BOSTIC TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20120330.KELLY.01/RNK