FNUS73 KFGF 311438 FWSFGF SPOT FORECAST FOR DORAN LAKE...USFWS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND 938 AM CDT SAT MAR 31 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1200 CDT ON MARCH 31. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THIS FORECAST IS IN TIMING THE WIND SHIFTS AND HOW MUCH DRIER THE AIR BECOMES OVER THE BURN AREA. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS CROSSING THE RED RIVER VALLEY WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF IT. HOWEVER...WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND CHANGING THE DIRECTION OF THE SMOKE A BIT AS IT RISES. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND WESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING DRIER AIR...BUT HUMIDITIES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 50 PERCENT UNTIL EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING...BUT HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OVER DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...SMOKE DISPERSAL IS EXPECTED TO BE GOOD. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....64-69. MIN HUMIDITY........36-41 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2600-4100 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN DECREASING TO 1500 FT AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING WINDS........SOUTH 29 TO 35 MPH DECREASING TO 15 TO 24 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST 10 TO 14 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. TIME (CDT) 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM SKY (%).........78 72 65 58 51 44 38 33 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TSTM COV........ TEMP............54 58 61 64 65 65 66 65 RH..............80 70 63 53 47 43 41 43 20 FT WIND DIR..S SW SW W W NW NW NW 20 FT WIND SPD..11 9 8 8 8 9 9 9 20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 10 10 10 15 15 15 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. MIN TEMPERATURE.....45-50. MAX HUMIDITY........83-88 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL. MIXING WINDS........EAST 6 TO 12 MPH. TIME (CDT) 7 PM 9 PM 11 PM 1 AM 3 AM 5 AM SKY (%).........29 26 28 33 47 47 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TSTM COV........ TEMP............63 57 53 51 49 47 RH..............48 59 70 77 82 87 20 FT WIND......NW 8 NE 6 NE 5 E 7 E 8 E 9 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 10 10 .SUNDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....68-73. MIN HUMIDITY........42-47 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 17 TO 22 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2500-4100 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN DECREASING TO 1500 FT AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING WINDS........EAST 13 TO 20 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTHEAST 26 TO 35 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN DECREASING TO AROUND 25 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (CDT) 7 AM 10 AM 1 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........46 42 38 37 WEATHER COV..... S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR TSTM COV........ S CHC S CHC TEMP............48 55 66 71 RH..............87 69 50 47 20 FT WIND......E 11G15 SE 19G25 SE 21G30 SE 22G30 $$ FORECASTER...HOPKINS REQUESTED BY...LINDY TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20120331.DORAN.01/FGF