FNUS75 KBOU 020257 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR LOWER NORTH FORK...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 844 PM MDT SUN APR 1 2012 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...SOUTHWESTERLY...THEN WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE BURN AREA AROUND 3 AM MDT. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT AND MOISTURE...COLDER AIR...AND PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. DATA FROM THE LATEST WEATHER MODELS IS JUST NOW COMING-IN. ONE THE MODELS SUGGESTS A STRONGER... BETTER-PRECIPITATION-PRODUCING STORM FOR THE BURN AREA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. WE'LL SEE AND HOPE FOR MUCH NEEDED PRECIPITATION. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .REST OF TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR EARLY...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. BECOMING CLOUDY AFTER 0400. MIN TEMPERATURE.....35-40. MAX HUMIDITY........65-75%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS 8-16 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH UNTIL 0300...THEN NORTH 7-16 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12-16 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN NORTH 12-20 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2400 FT AGL UNTIL 2100...THEN BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0400...THEN 1200-2200 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR UNTIL 2100...THEN POOR UNTIL 0500...THEN FAIR. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. .MONDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY WITH SNOW LIKELY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....35-43. MIN HUMIDITY........50-60%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 13-19 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 20-35 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......4200-5200 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD UNTIL 0800...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 1400...THEN GOOD. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. .MONDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SNOW. MIN TEMPERATURE.....25-32. MAX HUMIDITY........85-100%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 13-19 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH UNTIL 0300...THEN NORTHWEST AROUND 8 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 9-20 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3200-4200 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD UNTIL 1900. POOR AFTER 0500. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW. MAX TEMPERATURE.....35-45. MIN HUMIDITY........40-50%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 6-12 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 4-8 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3600-4600 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW UNTIL 0600. WARMER. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH. .THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 8 MPH. .FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 11 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. .SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS AROUND 60. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 6 MPH. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR LOWER NORTH FORK. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 04/01-20 38 6 1 59 17 SW16 25 2 1 SW47 2456 SW17 42124 F 04/01-21 38 6 1 53 24 SW13 21 2 1 SW47 777 SW16 10616 P 04/01-22 38 6 1 49 29 W10 17 2 1 SW46 571 W13 7447 P 04/01-23 38 6 1 46 34 NW 9 14 2 1 SW43 366 NW10 4277 P 04/02-00 73 39 17 44 37 NW 8 13 2 1 S39 160 NW 8 1108 P 04/02-01 73 39 17 41 42 N 8 13 2 1 S37 156 N 9 1220 P 04/02-02 73 39 17 40 46 N 8 14 2 1 S35 153 N10 1332 P 04/02-03 73 39 17 39 50 N 9 15 2 1 S32 149 N12 1444 P 04/02-04 73 39 17 38 53 N 9 15 2 1 S31 1129 N17 27042 P 04/02-05 73 39 17 38 53 NE 9 15 2 1 S29 2109 N23 52640 F 04/02-06 94 75 60 39 55 NE10 16 2 1 S28 3089 N29 78238 G 04/02-07 94 75 60 40 57 NE12 18 2 1 S26 3492 N30 92627 G 04/02-08 94 75 60 38 68 NE14 22 2 1 SE25 3895 N31 107017 V 04/02-09 94 75 60 40 68 NE15 24 2 1 SE24 4298 N32 121407 V 04/02-10 94 75 60 42 61 NE16 25 2 1 SE24 4542 N30 117025 V 04/02-11 94 75 60 43 53 NE16 25 2 1 SE25 4786 N28 112643 V 04/02-12 92 48 24 45 47 NE16 25 2 1 SE24 5029 N25 108261 V 04/02-13 92 48 24 46 45 NE16 26 2 1 SE24 5100 N23 101683 V 04/02-14 92 48 24 47 44 NE16 26 2 1 SE22 5170 NE21 95106 G 04/02-15 92 48 24 47 43 NE16 25 2 1 SE21 5240 NE20 88529 G 04/02-16 92 48 24 47 41 NE16 25 2 1 SE18 5175 NE20 87376 G 04/02-17 92 48 24 46 39 N15 24 2 1 SE17 5109 NE20 86222 G 04/02-18 87 50 26 44 41 N15 24 2 1 SE16 5044 NE20 85069 G 04/02-19 87 50 26 43 44 N15 24 2 1 SE16 4887 NE18 79730 G 04/02-20 87 50 26 40 52 N16 26 2 1 SE17 4731 NE18 74391 G 04/02-21 87 50 26 38 63 N17 28 2 1 SE18 4574 NE17 69051 G 04/02-22 87 50 26 37 64 N16 25 2 1 SE21 4266 N17 63280 G 04/02-23 87 50 26 36 65 N14 22 2 1 SE24 3969 N17 57795 F 04/03-00 66 41 18 35 65 N12 18 2 1 S25 3673 N16 52309 F 04/03-01 66 41 18 34 65 N10 16 2 1 S24 3485 N15 46434 F 04/03-02 66 41 18 33 65 N 9 14 2 1 S22 3297 N14 40558 F 04/03-03 66 41 18 32 66 N 8 13 2 1 SE20 3109 N13 34683 P 04/03-04 66 41 18 32 68 N 8 13 2 1 SE21 3029 NE10 26394 P 04/03-05 66 41 18 31 71 NW 8 13 2 1 SE22 2948 NE 7 18106 P 04/03-06 70 28 8 31 74 NW 8 13 2 1 SE24 2867 NE 3 9817 P 04/03-07 70 28 8 31 74 N 7 7 2 1 SE28 3021 E 5 11939 P 04/03-08 70 28 8 31 73 N 6 6 2 1 SE30 3175 SE 5 14060 P 04/03-09 70 28 8 35 61 N 5 5 2 1 S30 3329 S 6 16182 P 04/03-10 70 28 8 40 48 N 6 6 2 1 SE28 3844 S 7 22515 P 04/03-11 70 28 8 46 37 NE 8 8 2 1 SE23 4359 S 7 28848 P 04/03-12 47 21 4 48 34 NE 9 15 2 1 SE20 4874 S 8 35181 P 04/03-13 47 21 4 49 30 NE 9 15 2 1 SE18 4676 S 7 27196 P 04/03-14 47 21 4 50 29 NE 9 15 2 1 SE17 4479 S 5 19211 P 04/03-15 47 21 4 50 28 NE 9 15 2 1 SE17 4281 S 3 11226 P 04/03-16 47 21 4 50 27 NE 9 14 2 1 SE15 4020 S 3 11576 P 04/03-17 47 21 4 50 28 NE 8 13 2 1 E14 3760 SE 3 11926 P 04/03-18 39 15 3 49 29 NE 7 7 2 1 E13 3499 E 5 12275 P 04/03-19 39 15 3 47 34 N 5 5 2 1 E13 2509 SE 3 8619 P 04/03-20 39 15 3 43 42 W 3 3 2 1 E14 1520 SE 3 4962 P 04/03-21 39 15 3 40 47 SW 2 2 2 1 E15 530 SE 2 1305 P 04/03-22 39 15 3 38 51 SW 3 3 2 1 E15 435 S 5 1344 P 04/03-23 39 15 3 37 53 SW 5 5 2 1 E14 340 SW 6 1383 P 04/04-00 29 10 2 36 53 SW 7 7 2 1 E13 245 SW 7 1421 P 04/04-01 29 10 2 35 52 SW 8 14 2 1 E10 209 SW 8 1324 P 04/04-02 29 10 2 33 50 W 9 15 2 1 SE 8 172 SW 8 1227 P 04/04-03 29 10 2 33 48 W10 16 2 1 SE 7 136 SW 9 1129 P 04/04-04 29 10 2 32 50 W12 17 2 1 SE 6 124 W 9 1004 P 04/04-05 29 10 2 31 53 W12 18 2 1 SE 5 113 W 9 879 P 04/04-06 19 3 1 31 57 W10 16 2 1 E 5 101 W 8 754 P 04/04-07 19 3 1 31 60 SW 8 13 2 1 SE 5 167 SW 7 668 P 04/04-08 19 3 1 31 62 SW 5 5 2 1 SE 3 233 SW 5 581 P 04/04-09 19 3 1 38 50 SW 2 2 2 1 SE 3 298 SW 2 495 P 04/04-10 19 3 1 47 37 CALM 1 2 1 SE 3 2180 CALM 2455 P 04/04-11 19 3 1 57 27 CALM 1 2 1 S 5 4062 CALM 4416 P 04/04-12 23 3 1 60 25 CALM 1 2 1 S 6 5943 CALM 6376 P 04/04-13 23 3 1 63 23 CALM 1 2 1 SW 8 6706 SW 2 18394 P 04/04-14 23 3 1 63 22 CALM 1 2 1 SW12 7470 SW 5 30411 P 04/04-15 23 3 1 63 22 CALM 1 2 1 SW15 8233 SW 6 42429 F 04/04-16 23 3 1 64 21 SE 2 2 2 1 W17 7468 SW 6 36099 P 04/04-17 23 3 1 64 21 SE 2 2 2 1 W20 6704 S 5 29769 P 04/04-18 28 4 1 63 21 E 3 3 2 1 W21 5939 S 5 23439 P KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/ WR - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.1 INCH /PERCENT/ AT - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E- EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...ROCCO SNART FBAN T REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20120401.LOWER.02/BOU RJK