FNUS74 KLIX 011901 FWSLIX SPOT FORECAST FOR CPT G-02-08-18...U.S. FWS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 201 PM CDT SUN APR 1 2012 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AND REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP ONSHORE FLOW AND MOISTURE IN PLACE. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS NEAR THE AREA MID WEEK...BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR STRONGER STORMS. GENERAL WIND FIELD WILL CHANGE FROM SE TO SW THROUGH THAT PASS SAGE. 1. PLEASE INCLUDE A FOG POTENTIAL STATEMENT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING AND MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING IN YOUR REMARKS. THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG IS FAIRLY LIKELY BOTH NIGHTS AS MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN HIGH AND WINDS APPROACH CALM EACH NIGHT. MAY BE PATCHY AT TIMES BUT DO EXPECT IT TO BE MODERATE TO DENSE. 2. WITH THE LIGHT-TO-MODERATE WINDS FORECASTED FOR MONDAY, WE ARE CONCERNED THAT THE POINT AND CLICK FORECAST IS NOT TAKING THE SEABREEZE INTO ACCOUNT. SHOULD WE BE PREPARED FOR HIGHER GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON, AND WHAT RANGE OF WIND DIRECTIONS SHOULD WE EXPECT WINDS ARE NOT FCST TO BE TERRIBLY STRONG AT AROUND 10 MPH SO SHOULD NOT HAVE GUSTS MUCH HIGHER THAN MID TEENS IF THAT ON MONDAY. TUESDAY COULD BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER AND TO BE RECOGNIZED BY LATEST FCST. 3. POINT AND CLICK FORECASTS DO NOT SEEM TO BE ACCOUNTING FOR THE DRAINAGE FLOW OR LAND BREEZE THAT WE HAVE OBSERVED THE PAST FEW NIGHTS WHEN WIND GOES CALM. YESTERDAYS SPOT FORECAST FOR CPT G-02-08-18 DID CORRECTLY FORECAST VARIABLE WIND DIRECTIONS FOR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SHOULD WE EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE TOMORROW NIGHT THE GENERAL ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT IS THE SAME SO THOSE SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY OCCUR. 4. THIS MORNINGS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION AT 4:20AM MENTIONED AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND A MESOSCALE SYSTEM THAT COULD AFFECT OUR AREA ON MONDAY. A SIMILAR OCCURRENCE CAUSED SOME RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND CAUSED SOME SIGNIFICANT ERRORS IN THE WIND DIRECTIONS IN THE SPOT FORECAST ISSUED SATURDAY MORNING. WHAT EFFECTS WILL THE UPPER LEVEL LOW HAVE ON OUR WEATHER MONDAY, AND ARE THESE EFFECTS REFLECTED IN THE TABULAR PORTION OF YOUR FORECAST WHAT WAS DESCRIBED IN THIS MORNING/S FORECAST DISCUSSION IS A DIFFERENT SITUATION COMPARED TO LAST FRIDAY IN SEVERAL METEOROLOGICAL WAYS AND THE EFFECTS WILL BE DIFFERENT FOR DIFFERENT REASONS. WIND SPEED OR DIRECTION WILL NOT BE AFFECTED...JUST LOWER RAIN CHANCES. 5. A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WAS ISSUED AT 11AM THIS MORNING FOR OUR AREA. WHAT ARE THE CHANCES OF LIGHTNING AND HAIL OCCURRING AT THE PRESCRIBED BURN LOCATION ON MONDAY THE HWO IS ISSUED EVERY 4 TO 8 HOURS DAILY. PROBABILITY OF LIGHTNING IS 10 TO 20 PERCENT. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT). PATCHY DENSE FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 64. MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT. CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT. MIXING HEIGHT.......4800 FT AGL DECREASING TO 800-1900 FT AGL. MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 12 TO 18 MPH. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. DEWPOINT............67. TIME (CDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).........25 31 31 31 31 31 31 48 48 48 48 48 WEATHER COV..... PTY PTY PTY PTY PTY WEATHER TYPE.... FOG FOG FOG FOG FOG TEMP............82 79 76 72 70 69 68 67 66 66 65 65 RH..............58 62 69 81 87 90 97 100 100 100 100 100 DEWPOINT........66 65 65 66 66 66 67 67 66 66 65 65 20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S S S S S 20 FT WIND SPD..6 6 5 5 4 3 2 2 2 2 1 1 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 5 5 5 5 MIX HGT (KFT)...4.8 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.4 1.4 1.4 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 MIX HGT (KM)....1.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW TRANSP WIND SPD.12 15 15 15 17 17 17 18 18 18 14 14 TRANS SPD (M/S).5 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 6 6 DISPERSION......47 36 37 37 31 31 8 8 8 8 6 6 CHC OF PCPN (%).0 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 .MONDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). PATCHY DENSE FOG EARLY IN THE MORNING. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 84. MIN HUMIDITY........59 PERCENT. CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT. MIXING HEIGHT.......700-2400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4300-4700 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING WINDS........SOUTH 9 TO 14 MPH. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 10 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. DEWPOINT............69. TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........48 42 42 42 55 55 WEATHER COV.....PATCHY S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE....FOG RN/FG TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............65 67 75 82 84 83 RH..............100 100 79 63 59 61 DEWPOINT........65 67 68 68 68 68 20 FT WIND......S 2 S 2 S 4 S 6 S 7 S 8 20 FT WIND GUST. 5 5 10 15 15 MIX HGT (FT)....800 700 2400 2400 4300 4700 MIX HGT (M).....240 210 730 730 1310 1430 TRANSPORT WIND..SW 14 SW 9 SW 10 SW 10 S 13 S 14 TRAN WIND (M/S).SW 6 SW 4 SW 4 SW 4 S 6 S 6 DISPERSION......6 4 7 31 49 55 CHC OF PCPN (%).10 20 20 20 20 20 .MONDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 64. MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT. CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT. MIXING HEIGHT.......4700 FT AGL DECREASING TO 800-2400 FT AGL. MIXING WINDS........SOUTH 9 TO 14 MPH. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. DEWPOINT............69. TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........55 64 64 64 73 73 WEATHER COV.....S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............79 76 70 68 66 65 RH..............72 79 93 100 100 100 DEWPOINT........69 69 68 68 66 65 20 FT WIND......S 6 S 5 S 5 S 3 S 3 SE 2 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 5 5 5 MIX HGT (FT)....4700 2400 1200 1200 900 800 MIX HGT (M).....1430 730 370 370 270 240 TRANSPORT WIND..S 14 S 14 S 12 S 12 S 9 S 10 TRAN WIND (M/S).S 6 S 6 S 5 S 5 S 4 S 4 DISPERSION......55 43 19 8 4 5 CHC OF PCPN (%).20 20 20 20 20 20 $$ FORECASTER...EFFERSON REQUESTED BY...SAMI GRAY TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20120401.CPTG0.01/LIX