FNUS73 KAPX 021640 FWSAPX SPOT FORECAST FOR FROST POCKET 4...DNR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1240 PM EDT MON APR 2 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1400 EDT ON APRIL 02. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE AND EXTREMELY DRY AIR HAS NOSED DOWN INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN. EVEN RELATIVELY SHALLOW MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG DRYING OF THE SURFACE AIR MASS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WAS REFLECTED IN THE UPDATED ROUTINE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST. EVEN WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW CRITICAL VALUES...THE PRESENCE OF SOME GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS AT TIMES...AND THESE LOW HUMIDITY VALUES...THE FIRE DANGER WILL BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED THIS AFTERNOON. HUMIDITY RECOVERY WILL NOT BE ALL THAT FANTASTIC TONIGHT...BUT THE APPROACH OF A FRONT WILL BRING INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND SOME RAIN FOR TOMORROW MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP HUMIDITIES ON THE HIGH SIDE TOMORROW. THE FRONT ITSELF WILL CROSS LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SHIFT TO OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND BECOME SOMEWHAT GUSTY AGAIN. .REST OF TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (10-15 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........52 AT IGNITION...MAX 55. RH..................34 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 27 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS EAST AT 6 TO 8 MPH. GUSTS TO 15 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 9 TO 14 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3700-3900 FT AGL. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (400) AT IGNITION. MAX...GOOD (400). TIME (EDT) 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........18 17 16 15 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............50 52 53 53 RH..............37 31 29 29 20 FT WIND DIR..E E E E 20 FT WIND SPD..6 6 6 6 20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 15 10 HAINES INDEX....4 4 5 5 SMOKE DISP......400 300 300 300 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MIN 30. RH..................MAX 72 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 7 TO 10 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......800-2500 FT AGL DECREASING TO 300-400 FT AGL AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAINES INDEX........MIN 4. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MIN POOR(0). TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).........18 23 26 31 41 46 51 61 67 70 76 79 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............52 49 46 43 40 38 37 36 35 34 33 33 RH..............31 34 40 45 52 57 59 61 64 69 72 72 20 FT WIND DIR..E E E E SE SE SE S S S S S 20 FT WIND SPD..6 5 6 5 3 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 15 10 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 SMOKE DISP......200 200 200 200 100 100 100 0 0 0 0 0 .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS LATE IN THE MORNING. TEMPERATURE.........MAX 50. RH..................MIN 47 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 6 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN SHIFTING TO THE WEST AROUND 6 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MAX FAIR(200). TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........81 86 86 90 100 100 WEATHER COV..... CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............33 34 41 46 49 50 RH..............69 64 59 58 52 52 20 FT WIND......S 3 S 4 S 6 S 6 SW 6 W 6 20 FT WIND GUST.5 10 10 15 15 15 SMOKE DISP......0 100 100 0 0 100 .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .WEDNESDAY... MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. LIGHT WINDS. .THURSDAY... MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. LIGHT WINDS. .FRIDAY... MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 30. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. LIGHT WINDS. $$ FORECASTER...SCOTT DICKSON REQUESTED BY...RANDY MCKENZIE TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20120402.FROST.01/APX