FNUS71 KCTP 021633 FWSCTP SPOT FORECAST FOR BEAR CREEK 1...USFS ALLEGHENY NATIONAL FOREST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1233 PM EDT MON APR 2 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1208 EDT ON APRIL 02. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE. .DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE DISTRICT FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY BRINGING CLEAR TO SCATTERED SKIES AND A GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND. THE WIND WILL GUST BETWEEN 25 AND 30 MPH...MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE COMMONWEALTH. A CLEAR...FROSTY NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION WITH MORNING LOWS ON TUESDAY RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 20S ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS. .REST OF TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 54. MIN HUMIDITY........24 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 12 MPH. LAL.................NO TSTMS. MIXING HEIGHT.......3900-5200 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 17 TO 18 MPH. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT. TIME (EDT) 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).............16 15 15 14 13 10 WEATHER COV......... WEATHER TYPE........ TSTM COV............ TEMP................43 47 50 51 52 53 RH..................42 40 37 32 34 35 20 FT WIND DIR......N N NW NW NW NW 20 FT WIND SPD......8 10 10 12 12 12 20 FT WIND GUST.....15 15 15 15 15 15 MIX HGT (KFT).......3.9 4.4 4.9 5.1 5.2 4.9 TRANSP WIND DIR.....N N N N NW NW TRANSP WIND SPD.....17 17 18 18 18 17 CHC OF PCPN (%).....0 0 0 0 0 0 LAL.................1 1 1 1 1 1 HAINES INDEX........4 4 5 5 5 5 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR. AREAS OF FROST AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 30. MAX HUMIDITY........63 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH IN THE EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. LAL.................NO TSTMS. MIXING HEIGHT.......3000-4100 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 300-2100 FT AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 8 TO 17 MPH...BECOMING WEST 2 TO 6 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).............7 3 6 7 9 13 WEATHER COV......... AREAS AREAS WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE NONE FROST FROST TSTM COV............ TEMP................50 45 41 38 35 33 RH..................41 50 54 58 59 61 20 FT WIND..........NW 10 NW 7 N 6 N 3 N 2 W 0 20 FT WIND GUST.....15 10 10 5 5 MIX HGT (FT)........4100 2100 900 400 300 300 TRANSPORT WIND......NW 17 N 15 N 12 N 8 NW 5 W 3 CHC OF PCPN (%).....0 0 0 0 0 0 LAL.................1 1 1 1 1 1 HAINES INDEX........5 5 5 5 4 4 .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. AREAS OF FROST EARLY IN THE MORNING. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 65. MIN HUMIDITY........27 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 7 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. LAL.................NO TSTMS UNTIL 1400...THEN 1-8 STRIKES. MIXING HEIGHT.......200-1700 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 2400-3500 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 1 TO 2 MPH...BECOMING WEST 3 TO 8 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............18 21 30 50 67 73 WEATHER COV.........AREAS ISOLTD ISOLTD WEATHER TYPE........FROST NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR TSTM COV............ S CHC S CHC TEMP................34 36 46 56 62 65 RH..................59 52 42 32 27 27 20 FT WIND..........SW 0 S 0 S 3 SW 5 SW 6 SW 7 20 FT WIND GUST..... 5 10 10 MIX HGT (FT)........200 400 1700 2900 3400 3500 TRANSPORT WIND......W 2 S 1 NW 3 NW 6 NW 8 W 8 CHC OF PCPN (%).....0 0 0 0 20 20 LAL.................1 1 1 1 2 2 HAINES INDEX........4 4 4 5 5 5 $$ FORECASTER...WFO CTP/GARTNER REQUESTED BY...GARY KOLESAR TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20120402.BEARC.01/CTP