FNUS74 KLIX 021224 FWSLIX SPOT FORECAST FOR CPT G-13-18...U.S. FWS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 724 AM CDT MON APR 2 2012 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP ONSHORE FLOW AND MOISTURE IN PLACE. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS NEAR THE AREA MID WEEK...BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR STRONGER STORMS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF WINDS WITH A NORTHERLY COMPONENT MAY OCCUR LATE IN THE WEEK BUT THIS WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON WHETHER THE FRONT MAKES IT INTO OR THROUGH THE AREA. 1. PATCHY FOG...MAINLY LIGHT WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. TIMING IS INDICATED IN THE TABULAR FORECAST BELOW. 2. OUR FORECASTS ACCOUNT FOR A SEA BREEZE IF ONE IS EXPECTED. WINDS DIRECTION SHOULD BE PREDOMINANTLY SOUTH THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON THEN BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OR SOUTHEAST IN THE LATER AFTERNOON. MOST GUSTS SHOULD BE IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE BUT A FEW COULD BE 15 TO 20 MPH. 3. LOOKING AT THE FORECAST AND OBSERVATIONS...WIND SPEEDS WERE WITHIN 5 MPH OF THE FORECAST FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT...WHICH IS NEAR THE ERROR RANGE OF MOST INSTRUMENTS AND THUS CONSIDERED A GOOD FORECAST. WINDS ARE NOT FORECAST TO CALM COMPLETELY TONIGHT. 4. YES - 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. 5. WINDS AND DEWPOINTS REMAINED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN FORECAST WHICH DID NOT ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL AS LOW AS EXPECTED. THE FORECAST ISSUED THIS MORNING ACCOUNTS FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS. 6. MODEL DISCREPANCIES ARE NOT SIGNIFICANT IN THE NEAR TERM WITH MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST TODAY AND TONIGHT THAN LATER IN THE WEEK. THAT SAID...IF YOU LOOK AT THE TABULAR FORECAST BELOW...YOU WILL SEE THAT THE TRANSPORT WIND DIRECTION IS NOT ALWAYS FORECAST TO BE EXACTLY THE SAME AS THE SURFACE WINDS. THIS IS NOT AN UNCOMMON PHENOMENON AND HAS LITTLE TO DO WITH FORECAST CONFIDENCE. .TODAY... TIME (CDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........43 43 43 43 43 47 47 47 47 47 WEATHER COV..... ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO WEATHER TYPE.... TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TEMP............70 73 77 79 81 82 83 83 82 81 RH..............97 90 79 74 67 65 63 63 65 67 DEWPOINT........69 70 70 70 69 69 69 69 69 69 20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S SE SE 20 FT WIND SPD..2 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 6 20 FT WIND GUST.5 10 10 10 15 15 15 15 15 15 MIX HGT (KFT)...0.7 0.7 2.4 2.4 2.4 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.7 4.7 MIX HGT (KM)....0.2 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.7 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW S S S S S S S S TRANSP WIND SPD.14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 15 15 TRANS SPD (M/S).6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 DISPERSION......6 9 9 42 39 53 53 53 60 60 CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 10 10 10 20 20 20 20 20 .TONIGHT... TIME (CDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).........47 66 66 66 66 66 66 72 72 72 72 72 WEATHER COV.....ISO PTY PTY WEATHER TYPE....TSM FOG FOG TEMP............79 78 75 73 72 71 71 70 70 69 69 69 RH..............74 76 84 87 90 93 93 97 97 97 97 97 DEWPOINT........70 70 70 69 69 69 69 69 69 68 68 68 20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE 20 FT WIND SPD..6 6 5 5 5 4 3 2 2 2 3 3 20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 10 10 10 10 5 5 5 5 5 5 MIX HGT (KFT)...4.7 2.4 2.4 2.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 MIX HGT (KM)....1.4 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S S S S S S TRANSP WIND SPD.15 15 15 15 13 13 13 10 10 10 13 13 TRANS SPD (M/S).7 7 7 7 6 6 6 4 4 4 6 6 DISPERSION......60 42 45 45 21 21 8 5 5 5 8 8 CHC OF PCPN (%).20 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 .TUESDAY... TIME (CDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........72 66 66 66 66 66 66 65 65 65 65 65 WEATHER COV.....PTY PTY PTY CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC WEATHER TYPE....FOG FOG FOG TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TEMP............69 69 70 73 77 79 80 82 82 82 81 80 RH..............100 100 97 90 79 74 69 65 65 65 67 69 DEWPOINT........69 69 69 70 70 70 69 69 69 69 69 69 20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE SE SE SE SE S S S S S 20 FT WIND SPD..4 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 10 10 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 MIX HGT (KFT)...0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 2.3 2.3 2.3 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 MIX HGT (KM)....0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.7 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S S S S S S TRANSP WIND SPD.13 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 12 12 TRANS SPD (M/S).6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 5 5 DISPERSION......8 10 10 10 20 40 40 54 40 40 31 31 CHC OF PCPN (%).10 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 $$ FORECASTER...NWS NEW ORLEANS REQUESTED BY...SCOTT SAUCIER TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20120402.CPTG1.01/LIX