FNUS74 KLZK 021440 FWSLZK SPOT FORECAST FOR MONARCH BURN...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR 940 AM CDT MON APR 2 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 CDT ON APRIL 02. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... OVERALL DRY AND CONTINUED VERY WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING...WELL AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM AS IT DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS. ANY SHOWER OR STORM THAT DOES DEVELOP COULD CREATE LOCALIZED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...CAUSING A WIND SHIFT. HOWEVER...FOR MOST LOCATIONS...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE DOMINANT. THIS STORM SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH ARKANSAS LATER TONIGHT AND SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ARKANSAS THROUGH THURSDAY. A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN...WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF ARKANSAS BY FRIDAY. DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR FRIDAY...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS BACK IN THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE.........77 AT IGNITION...MAX 86. RH..................65 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 46 PERCENT. CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 6 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS........SOUTH 8 TO 17 MPH INCREASING TO 20 TO 22 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......BECOMING 6200 FT MSL. STABILITY CLASS.....4. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WINDS SOUTH AT 6 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING LIGHT EARLY IN THE MORNING BECOMING SOUTH 7 TO 8 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TIME (CDT) 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........MCR PC PC PC PC PC PC WEATHER COV..... ISO ISO WEATHER TYPE.... TSM TSM TEMP............77 79 81 83 84 85 85 RH..............65 60 55 52 48 46 46 20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S 20 FT WIND SPD..7 7 7 7 8 8 7 20 FT WIND GUST.7 7 7 11 11 11 7 EYE LVL WND DIR.S S S S S S S EYE LVL WND SPD.4 4 4 4 5 5 4 EYE LVL WND GST.4 4 4 6 6 6 4 TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S TRANSP WIND SPD.14 15 16 17 20 21 22 CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 20 20 20 20 20 .TONIGHT... 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. TIME (CDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM 20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S S S S S 20 FT WIND SPD..7 6 5 3 3 3 2 2 3 3 3 2 20 FT WIND GUST.7 7 7 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 2 .TUESDAY... 20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 9 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TIME (CDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S S S S S 20 FT WIND SPD..3 3 3 5 6 7 8 9 9 9 9 8 20 FT WIND GUST.3 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 9 9 9 8 $$ FORECASTER...62 REQUESTED BY...KURT RADCLIFF TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20120402.MONAR.01/LZK