FNUS73 KAPX 031838 FWSAPX SPOT FORECAST FOR PERRY CREEK...USDA FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 238 PM EDT TUE APR 3 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1600 EDT ON APRIL 03. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... LOW LEVEL COLD FRONT IS WORKING INTO THE BURN SITE WITH WINDS ALREADY SWITCHING MORE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS HAS KEPT HUMIDITIES RELATIVELY HIGH...BUT WARMER THAT THOUGHT FOR THE DAY. STRONG DRYING WILL BLOW IN OVER THE BURN SITE AROUND 9PM THAT WILL CLEAR OUT THE SKIES FOR THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP A BIT...BUT WITH NIGHTFALL...THE WIND INCREASE WILL NOT BE FELT UNTIL TOMORROW AFTER SUN COMES OUT AND THE ATMOSPHERE MIXES. FIRE DANGER WILL BE ELEVATED TOMORROW DUE TO THE DRY AIR AND THE EXPECTATION FOR GUSTY WINDS. SKIES WILL BE SUNNY. .REST OF TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........56 AT IGNITION...MAX 59. RH..................48 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 42 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS NORTHWEST AT 5 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH. GUSTS TO 17 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 14 TO 17 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3300 FT AGL. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (600). TIME (EDT) 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........100 100 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............56 52 RH..............48 52 20 FT WIND DIR..NW NW 20 FT WIND SPD..5 5 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 HAINES INDEX....3 3 SMOKE DISP......600 600 .TONIGHT... TEMPERATURE.........MIN 28. RH..................MAX 100 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 10 TO 18 MPH DECREASING TO 8 TO 9 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIXING HEIGHT.......700-2500 FT AGL DECREASING TO 200-300 FT AGL AFTER MIDNIGHT. TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM TEMP............51 49 50 47 44 42 40 38 36 35 34 33 RH..............54 58 56 60 68 70 73 79 82 82 85 85 20 FT WIND DIR..NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW 20 FT WIND SPD..6 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MAX 55. RH..................MIN 27 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTH 5 TO 9 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 8 TO 14 MPH INCREASING TO NORTH 18 TO 24 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........MAX 5. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........1 1 1 10 19 20 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............30 29 40 52 53 54 RH..............92 92 53 36 31 27 20 FT WIND......NW 3 NW 4 N 6 N 7 N 8 N 8 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 15 20 20 20 HAINES INDEX....5 5 4 4 4 4 .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .THURSDAY... MOSTLY CLEAR. PATCHY FROST. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 6 MPH. .FRIDAY... MOSTLY CLEAR. PATCHY FROST. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. LIGHT WINDS. .SATURDAY... MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. LIGHT WINDS. $$ FORECASTER...SCOTT DICKSON REQUESTED BY...PAUL LYDEN TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20120403.PERRY.01/APX