FNUS73 KAPX 031138 FWSAPX SPOT FORECAST FOR THOMPSON FARM...USDA FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 738 AM EDT TUE APR 3 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0745 EDT ON APRIL 03. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...THE BAND OF SPRINKLES THAT MOVED THROUGH BEFORE DAWN MOISTENED UP THE LOW-LEVEL HUMIDITY. CURRENT RADAR SHOWS A SMALL AREA OF LIGHT RAIN OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. ON ITS PRESENT COURSE...IT WILL CROSS THE BURN AREA BETWEEN 11 AM AND 1 PM. WHILE A LIGHTNING STRIKE IS POSSIBLE...CURRENT EXPECTATION IS THAT THE GREATEST RISK WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE BURN SITE. THIS AREA OF RAIN IS IN THE PROCESS OF SLOWLY DISSIPATING. SO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LOW IF THE BURN IS STILL IN PROGRESS. OTHERWISE...A CLOUDY DAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH MIDDAY. AROUND 2 PM...AN ABRUPT WINDSHIFT TO NORTHWEST WILL OCCUR. WINDS COULD BRIEFLY GUST UP TO 20 MPH SHORTLY AFTER THE WINDSHIFT. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY BETWEEN 1100 AND 1300. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM. TEMPERATURE.........38 AT IGNITION...MAX 55. RH..................78 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 39 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTHWEST AT 2 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 6 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING LIGHT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 3 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST 12 TO 14 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 200-2100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2900 FT AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (0) AT IGNITION. MAX...GOOD (400). TIME (EDT) 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........100 100 95 95 95 96 98 99 99 100 100 WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW TEMP............35 38 41 44 47 50 53 55 55 54 54 RH..............78 67 55 47 43 41 39 40 41 45 46 20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE SE SE S S NW NW NW NW 20 FT WIND SPD..1 2 4 5 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 20 FT WIND GUST. 5 10 10 10 15 10 10 10 10 5 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 SMOKE DISP......0 0 100 100 200 300 300 300 400 400 300 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS EARLY IN THE EVENING. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 32. RH..................MAX 88 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST 5 TO 6 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING. TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).........90 69 59 59 59 36 36 36 8 8 8 8 WEATHER COV.....SCH SCH WEATHER TYPE....RW RW TEMP............53 52 52 50 47 45 42 40 38 36 35 34 RH..............50 52 52 54 60 62 70 73 76 79 82 82 20 FT WIND DIR..NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW 20 FT WIND SPD..3 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 5 5 20 FT WIND GUST.5 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 $$ FORECASTER...JEFF HALBLAUB REQUESTED BY...BSTEARNS TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20120403.THOMP.01/APX