FNUS74 KHUN 031307 FWSHUN SPOT FORECAST FOR LEOLA - UPDATE...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL 807 AM CDT TUE APR 3 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 CDT ON APRIL 03. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... VERY HUMID CONDITIONS...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES NEAR 100 PERCENT WILL DRY OUT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD BE REDUCED TO AROUND 65 PERCENT AT THE 11 AM IGNITION TIME...WITH MINIMUM VALUES OF AROUND 55 PERCENT AT 4 PM. AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S WILL RISE TO AROUND 75 AT THE 11 AM IGNITION TIME...WITH HIGHS OF AROUND 80 BETWEEN 2-5PM. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS 20-FOOT WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AROUND 3 MPH BY 10 AM. A FEW GUSTS OF 7-12 MPH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. GENERALLY GOOD DISPERSION RATES ARE EXPECTED TODAY. THE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH RATHER HIGH AMOUNTS OF ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN UNSTABLE CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT...WHICH WILL ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BEGINNING IN THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH...ALONG WITH SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THIS MOIST ATMOSPHERE COULD BECOME LOCALLY HEAVY...WITH UP TO ONE HALF OF AN INCH POSSIBLE IN A SHORT TIME. RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...EVEN GREATER RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED DURING WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURE.........74 AT IGNITION...MAX 80. RH..................64 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 54 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTHWEST AT 3 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS. CWR.................10 PERCENT INCREASING TO 30 PERCENT. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6600-6700 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 5 TO 8 MPH BECOMING 3 TO 10 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TIME (CDT) 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........MC MC MC MC MC MC MC WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW TEMP............74 76 77 79 80 80 79 RH..............64 61 58 56 55 54 55 20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW SW SW SW 20 FT WIND SPD..3 3 3 3 3 3 3 20 FT WIND GUST.5 10 10 10 5 5 5 MIX HGT (KFT)...4.2 4.2 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.6 6.6 TRANSP WIND DIR.NW NW W W W W W TRANSP WIND SPD.10 10 3 3 3 9 9 DISPERSION IDX..52 52 12 12 12 32 32 CHC OF PCPN (%).30 30 50 50 50 50 50 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 63. RH..................MAX 87 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS. CWR.................50 PERCENT. MIXING HEIGHT.......6600 FT AGL DECREASING TO 400-2100 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 9 MPH. TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............78 74 70 68 66 64 RH..............57 65 70 73 76 81 20 FT WIND......SW 3 S 3 S 3 SW 3 SW 3 SW 3 MIX HGT (FT)....6600 2100 700 700 500 400 TRANSPORT WIND..W 9 SW 6 W 8 W 8 SW 8 SW 6 DISPERSION IDX..32 11 8 4 4 3 CHC OF PCPN (%).50 30 30 30 30 30 .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. TEMPERATURE.........MAX 79. RH..................MIN 55 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 9 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. CWR.................60 PERCENT. MIXING HEIGHT.......400-600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3600-5200 FT AGL IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 15 TO 17 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY WEATHER COV.....CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............63 65 71 75 78 79 RH..............85 81 69 63 58 55 20 FT WIND......SW 3 SW 3 SW 6 SW 8 SW 9 SW 8 MIX HGT (FT)....400 600 4800 4800 5200 3600 TRANSPORT WIND..SW 6 SW 10 W 17 W 17 W 16 W 15 DISPERSION IDX..3 7 12 52 50 39 CHC OF PCPN (%).30 60 60 60 60 60 $$ FORECASTER...BOYD REQUESTED BY...CLARK TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20120403.LEOLA.01/HUN