FNUS71 KRNK 021715
FWSRNK

SPOT FORECAST FOR BIG WILSON...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
115 PM EDT MON APR 2 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 EDT ON APRIL 03.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN VIRGINIA WILL DRIFT OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY.  A WARM FRONT OVER KENTUCKY AND
TENNESSEE WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.  THREAT FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FRONT SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 4:00 PM.

IT WILL BE A COOL START TO THE DAY WITH MORNING TEMPERATURES
IN THE 30S...WINDS LIGHT.  WEAK TRANSPORT IN THE MORNING
SHOULD GIVE WAY TO BETTER VENTILATION IN THE AFTERNOON
PER DEEPER MIXING FROM THE SUN HEATING THE GROUND AND
AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST TO WEST WIND ALOFT.


.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT SHADING)
                    A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....65 RIDGETOP...72 VALLEY.
MIN HUMIDITY........32 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS FROM 6-10 AM...
                    BECOMING SOUTHWEST 4 TO 8 MPH IN THE
                    LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...THE DIRECTION
                    TENDING MORE FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
CWR (0.01 IN).......20 PERCENT. SHOWER THREAT AFTER 1600 LST.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1200 FT AGL AT 0900 LST...INCREASING TO
                    4000 FT AGL BY 2100 LST.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 2 TO 6 MPH IN THE MORNING...
                    BECOMING WEST 10 TO 16 MPH LATE IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.


TIME (EDT)          6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).............14     20     32     40     40     62
WEATHER COV.........                                   S CHC
WEATHER TYPE........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR
TSTM COV............                                   S CHC
TEMP................35     42     52     60     63     65
RH..................69     56     44     37     33     32
20 FT WIND..........S 1    S 3    SW 4   SW 5   SW 5   W 7
20 FT WIND GUST.....       5      10     10     10     15
MIX HGT (FT)........300    400    1300   2000   2400   3800
TRANSPORT WIND......S 0    S 2    SW 8   SW 12  SW 14  W 16
CWR.................0      0      0      0      10     20

REMARKS... EYE LEVEL WINDS WILL BE UPSLOPE (FROM SOUTHEAST)
2 TO 5 MPH DURING THE LATE MORNING AND DURING THE AFTERNOON.


$$
FORECASTER...MANUEL
REQUESTED BY...STEVE SMESTAD
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20120403.BIGWI.01/RNK