FNUS71 KRNK 030911 FWSRNK SPOT FORECAST FOR BIG WILSON...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 511 AM EDT TUE APR 3 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0930 EDT ON APRIL 03. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL KEEP MIXING HEIGHTS AND TRANSPORT WINDS LOW/LIGHT/VARIABLE. THE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL WORK NORTHEAST INTO THE BURN AREA AFTER 3 PM TODAY. 20 FT AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SKY COVER IS EXPECTED TO STAY MAINLY CLEAR...WITH A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS FORMING THIS AFTERNOON. SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS ALSO POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY. TONIGHT...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE WORKING IN FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE PROBLEMATIC WEDNESDAY IN TERMS OF TRANSPORT WINDS...AS OVERALL THE MODELS ARE KEEPING IT IN A WNW-NW DIRECTION WEDNESDAY MORNING...TURNING IT MORE WEST BY MIDDAY...ALTHOUGH ONE MODEL KEEPS IT SITUATED IN A 300 DEGREE RANGE. ALSO FOR WEDNESDAY...IT APPEARS AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD IMPACT THE AREA AROUND MID MORNING...BUT TRENDS IN THE MODELS SHOWING A POTENTIAL SOUTHWARD SHIFT AND THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR LITTLE TO NO RAIN...BUT ENOUGH CLOUD COVER TO KEEP MIXING HEIGHTS A LITTLE LOWER THAN TODAYS. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........52 AT IGNITION...MAX 70. RH..................45 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 35 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 9 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. CWR (0.01 IN).......0 PERCENT. MIXING HEIGHT.......1400 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 2800 FT AGL LATE. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 0 TO 8 MPH...INCREASING TO WEST 12 TO 16 MPH LATE. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5. TIME (EDT) 9 AM 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM SKY (%).............13 16 22 26 32 WEATHER COV......... WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TSTM COV............ TEMP................48 56 61 66 69 RH..................45 37 36 35 35 20 FT WIND..........SW 4 SW 5 SW 5 SW 6 SW 7 20 FT WIND GUST.....10 10 15 15 20 MIX HGT (FT)........400 800 1200 2100 2200 TRANSPORT WIND......S 0 S 0 SW 5 SW 12 W 16 CWR.................0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX........5 5 4 4 3 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT)...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 57. RH..................MAX 70 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 7 TO 11 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING. CWR (0.01 IN).......20 PERCENT. MIXING HEIGHTS......DROPPING TO BELOW 1000 FEET AFTER DUSK. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 12 MPH...BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 0 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).............39 50 45 40 42 52 WEATHER COV......... S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR TSTM COV............ TEMP................68 66 64 62 61 60 RH..................37 44 50 55 57 59 20 FT WIND..........SW 7 W 6 W 6 W 7 W 9 W 9 20 FT WIND GUST.....20 15 15 15 20 20 MIX HGT (FT)........1600 500 400 300 300 200 TRANSPORT WIND......SW 12 S 0 S 0 S 0 S 0 S 0 CWR.................0 0 0 10 20 20 HAINES INDEX........3 3 3 3 3 3 .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE MORNING. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS LIKELY LATE. TEMPERATURE.........MAX 64. RH..................MIN 57 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 12 TO 17 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH LATE. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. CWR (0.01 IN).......60 PERCENT. MIXING HEIGHT.......1400 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 2400 FT AGL LATE. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 0 TO 6 MPH...INCREASING TO WEST 14 TO 23 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............63 72 78 82 82 76 WEATHER COV.........S CHC S CHC S CHC CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY WEATHER TYPE........RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TSTM COV............ CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE TEMP................59 57 59 61 62 63 RH..................64 70 67 64 61 59 20 FT WIND..........W 9 W 9 W 9 W 10 W 12 W 14 20 FT WIND GUST.....20 20 20 20 25 30 MIX HGT (FT)........100 100 200 400 500 2400 TRANSPORT WIND......S 0 S 0 W 14 W 23 W 23 W 21 CWR.................20 20 20 30 50 60 HAINES INDEX........3 3 4 4 3 3 $$ FORECASTER...PERRY REQUESTED BY...STEVE SMESTAD TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20120403.BIGWI.02/RNK