FNUS71 KAKQ 041141 FWSAKQ SPOT FORECAST FOR MARUMSCO...MD.FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 741 AM EDT WED APR 4 2012 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD FROM PENNSYLVANIA AND THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY...CROSSING THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. DRY WEATHER RETURNS TO MOST AREAS ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AND MAY BRING SOME RAIN TO FAR SOUTHERN VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (65-75 PERCENT). A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE MORNING. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 76. MIN HUMIDITY........41 PERCENT. WIND (20FT/2MIN)....NORTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 12 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS POSSIBLE IN OR NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT. MIXING HEIGHT.......200-1600 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 2300-3600 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 8 TO 16 MPH...INCREASING TO 18 TO 21 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5 OR VERY LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TIME (EDT) 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).............64 64 67 67 67 71 71 71 73 73 73 WEATHER COV......... SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC WEATHER TYPE........ RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW TSTM COV............ CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC TEMP................54 56 57 61 65 69 71 73 74 75 74 RH..................83 86 86 75 68 57 53 48 46 43 44 CHC OF PCPN (%).....10 10 10 10 20 20 20 30 30 30 30 MIX HGT (KFT).......0.2 0.3 0.7 1.2 1.6 2.3 2.9 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.5 20 FT WIND DIR......W W W W W NW NW NW NW NW NW 20 FT WIND SPD......7 7 7 7 8 9 10 12 10 10 9 20 FT WIND GUST.....10 10 10 10 10 10 15 15 10 TRANSP WIND DIR.....W W NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW TRANSP WIND SPD.....9 10 10 10 10 13 16 18 21 21 21 VRATE KT-FT/1000....2 2 6 10 15 25 40 57 63 65 62 LVORI...............8 8 5 3 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 ADI.................9 9 9 15 22 35 37 48 53 55 53 HAINES INDEX........4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 .TONIGHT... CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT. MIXING HEIGHT.......1300-2400 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 300 FT AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 8 TO 17 MPH...DECREASING TO 7 TO 12 MPH IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM CHC OF PCPN (%).....30 30 20 20 20 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 MIX HGT (KFT).......2.4 1.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 TRANSP WIND DIR.....NW NW N N N N N N N N N N TRANSP WIND SPD.....17 13 9 8 7 8 9 10 12 10 9 9 VRATE KT-FT/1000....36 15 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 2 LVORI...............1 2 3 3 3 3 4 3 3 3 3 3 ADI.................37 19 7 6 7 7 6 7 8 7 7 6 HAINES INDEX........4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 .THURSDAY... CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-2000 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 2800-4200 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 12 TO 17 MPH. HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM CHC OF PCPN (%).....10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 0 0 0 0 MIX HGT (KFT).......0.3 0.3 0.3 1.1 2.0 2.8 3.3 3.8 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 TRANSP WIND DIR.....N N N N N N N N N N N NW TRANSP WIND SPD.....12 15 17 17 17 16 15 13 12 12 12 12 VRATE KT-FT/1000....3 3 4 17 29 39 42 42 43 42 42 42 LVORI...............3 3 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ADI.................8 10 11 12 33 37 37 35 44 43 44 44 HAINES INDEX........4 4 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 FORECASTER...ALEXANDER REQUESTED BY...DON KRONNER TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20120404.MARUM.01/AKQ