FNUS71 KRNK 040951 FWSRNK SPOT FORECAST FOR BIG WILSON...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 551 AM EDT WED APR 4 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0621 EDT ON APRIL 04. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED JUST NORTH OF THE BURN AREA THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO SINK SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH NO APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TODAY OR IN 20 FOOT WIND DIRECTIONS OUTSIDE OF IMPACTS FROM SHOWERS OR STORMS IN THE AREA. EXPECTING MORE CLOUD COVER TODAY WITH SOME BREAKS THIS AFTERNOON. THE FOCUS FOR STORMS LOOKS TO BE JUST SOUTH OF THE BURN AREA...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE IN THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. TRANSPORT WINDS WILL PICK UP BUT DIRECTIONS WILL VARY FROM 280 TO 310 DEGREES. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL BE PROBLEMATIC SINCE SKY COVER WILL BE AN ISSUE. LATEST FORECAST SUGGESTS POTENTIAL OF MIXING UP TO 4000 FEET AGL AFTER 4 PM...BUT STAYING AT OR BELOW 2000 FEET UP UNTIL 2PM. THE FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT SO TRANSPORT WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH AND WEAKEN. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT) SOME SUNSHINE AFTER 4 PM. (45-55 PERCENT). A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 67. MIN HUMIDITY........44 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 9 TO 12 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. CWR (0.01 IN).......40 PERCENT. MIXING HEIGHT.......4500 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 0 TO 6 MPH EARLY...INCREASING TO WEST 10 TO 17 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING NORTHWEST 21 TO 25 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............82 90 94 95 95 70 WEATHER COV.........S CHC S CHC CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE........RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TSTM COV............ ISOLTD S CHC CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE TEMP................59 58 61 64 65 66 RH..................58 61 55 52 49 48 20 FT WIND..........W 10 NW 9 W 8 W 7 W 8 W 10 20 FT WIND GUST.....20 20 15 20 25 25 CWR.................10 20 30 30 40 40 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY (40-65 PERCENT). A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE EVENING. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 43. MAX HUMIDITY........70 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 6 TO 11 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH UNTIL EARLY MORNING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING. CWR (0.01 IN).......40 PERCENT. MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 18 TO 25 MPH...BECOMING NORTH 1 TO 2 MPH. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).............62 65 62 56 43 52 WEATHER COV.........CHANCE CHANCE S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE........RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE NONE TSTM COV............CHANCE TEMP................64 59 55 52 50 48 RH..................50 60 63 63 61 63 20 FT WIND..........W 9 NW 6 NW 6 N 5 N 4 N 3 20 FT WIND GUST.....25 20 15 10 10 5 CWR.................40 30 20 20 10 10 .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 56. MIN HUMIDITY........43 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING EAST AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5 TO 6 MPH LATE. CWR (0.01 IN).......20 PERCENT. MIXING HEIGHT.......1900 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 1 TO 3 MPH. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............55 53 51 49 51 57 WEATHER COV......... S CHC WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR TSTM COV............ TEMP................46 44 48 51 53 54 RH..................66 68 59 52 47 44 20 FT WIND..........NE 3 E 4 E 4 E 3 SE 2 SE 4 20 FT WIND GUST.....5 10 10 5 5 10 CWR.................10 10 10 10 10 20 $$ FORECASTER...PERRY REQUESTED BY...STEVE SMESTAD TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20120404.BIGWI.01/RNK