FNUS71 KRNK 041001 FWSRNK SPOT FORECAST FOR BIG WILSON...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 601 AM EDT WED APR 4 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0654 EDT ON APRIL 04. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED JUST NORTH OF THE BURN AREA THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO SINK SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH NO APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TODAY OR IN 20 FOOT WIND DIRECTIONS OUTSIDE OF IMPACTS FROM SHOWERS OR STORMS IN THE AREA. EXPECTING MORE CLOUD COVER TODAY WITH SOME BREAKS THIS AFTERNOON. THE FOCUS FOR STORMS LOOKS TO BE JUST SOUTH OF THE BURN AREA...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE IN THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. TRANSPORT WINDS WILL PICK UP BUT DIRECTIONS WILL VARY FROM 280 TO 310 DEGREES. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL BE PROBLEMATIC SINCE SKY COVER WILL BE AN ISSUE. LATEST FORECAST SUGGESTS POTENTIAL OF MIXING UP TO 4000 FEET AGL AFTER 4 PM...BUT STAYING AT OR BELOW 2000 FEET UP UNTIL 2PM. THE FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT SO TRANSPORT WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH AND WEAKEN. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT)...THEN BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE MORNING. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 74. MIN HUMIDITY........46 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WEST NORTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 9 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. CWR (0.01 IN).......40 PERCENT. MIXING HEIGHT.......1600 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 4800 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 0 TO 8 MPH...INCREASING TO NORTHWEST 12 TO 21 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............81 89 92 93 94 67 WEATHER COV.........S CHC S CHC CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE........RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TSTM COV............ CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE TEMP................57 56 62 66 70 72 RH..................75 81 68 58 51 48 20 FT WIND..........W 5 W 5 W 5 W 6 W 6 W 7 20 FT WIND GUST.....10 10 10 15 20 20 CWR.................10 20 30 30 40 40 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY (40-65 PERCENT). A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE EVENING. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 46. MAX HUMIDITY........78 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH IN THE EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING. CWR (0.01 IN).......40 PERCENT. MIXING HEIGHT.......2300 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 1000 FT AGL AFTER MIDNIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 12 TO 21 MPH...BECOMING NORTH 1 TO 4 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).............60 67 62 55 41 50 WEATHER COV.........CHANCE CHANCE S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE........RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE NONE TSTM COV............CHANCE TEMP................70 64 60 57 54 52 RH..................50 59 62 63 63 66 20 FT WIND..........W 6 NW 5 NW 4 N 3 N 2 N 2 20 FT WIND GUST.....15 15 10 5 5 5 CWR.................40 30 20 20 10 10 .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 61. MIN HUMIDITY........41 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH LATE. CWR (0.01 IN).......20 PERCENT. MIXING HEIGHT.......2700 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 4200 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 3 TO 6 MPH. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............53 53 51 49 51 57 WEATHER COV......... S CHC WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR TSTM COV............ TEMP................49 48 52 56 58 60 RH..................73 77 60 49 43 41 20 FT WIND..........N 2 E 2 E 2 E 2 S 2 SE 3 20 FT WIND GUST.....5 5 5 5 5 5 CWR.................10 10 10 10 10 20 $$ FORECASTER...PERRY REQUESTED BY...STEVE SMESTAD TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20120404.BIGWI.02/RNK