FNUS74 KAMA 051423 FWSAMA SPOT FORECAST FOR BUFFALO LAKE RX...USFWS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX 923 AM CDT THU APR 5 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0935 CDT ON APRIL 05. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING SHOULD SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...WIND SPEEDS COULD BE AS HIGH AS 10 TO 15 MPH...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS...BUT OTHERWISE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IN ADDITION...MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD HELP TO KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE 20 PERCENT ALL DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH A HIGH IN THE MID 70S. TOMORROW A DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE BURN SITE. STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE EXACTLY THIS DRYLINE WILL STALL...BUT AT THIS POINT FORECAST THE BURN SITE TO BE ON THE DRY SIDE OF THE DRYLINE. THUS EXPECT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 10 TO 15 PERCENT TO RESULT IN ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH A HIGH NEAR 80. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 75. MIN HUMIDITY........24 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH. CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT. LAL.................1. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......0-1500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 9500-11000 FT AGL. MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 2 TO 9 MPH INCREASING TO 8 TO 12 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TIME (CDT) 9 AM 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM SKY (%).........MCLEAR MCLEAR CLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............45 57 67 73 75 RH..............68 45 33 26 24 20 FT WIND......SW 7 S 8 S 7 S 6 SE 8 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 10 10 CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 5 5 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (15-25 PERCENT). MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 46. MAX HUMIDITY........83 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 17 MPH INCREASING TO 14 TO 20 MPH IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT. LAL.................1. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......11000 FT AGL DECREASING TO 500 FT AGL. MIXING WINDS........SOUTH 10 TO 17 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST 20 TO 26 MPH IN THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING...THEN DECREASING TO 13 TO 16 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............74 66 59 55 52 49 RH..............26 36 49 59 66 74 20 FT WIND......SE 10 SE 14 SE 20 SE 18 SE 16 S 14 20 FT WIND GUST.15 20 30 25 25 20 CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....5 3 3 3 5 5 .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 82. MIN HUMIDITY........18 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 14 TO 21 MPH. CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT. LAL.................1. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......500-2000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 13000-13500 FT AGL. MIXING WINDS........SOUTHEAST 13 TO 18 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST 23 TO 30 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR CLEAR CLEAR CLEAR WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............47 48 60 70 78 82 RH..............79 80 53 39 28 22 20 FT WIND......SE 14 SE 15 S 18 S 20 S 21 S 21 20 FT WIND GUST.20 25 25 30 30 30 CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 10 10 HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 5 4 4 $$ FORECASTER...JOHNSON REQUESTED BY...JEREMIAH PHILLIPS TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20120405.BUFFA.01/AMA