FNUS73 KAPX 051719 FWSAPX SPOT FORECAST FOR MERIDIAN RX...USDA FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 119 PM EDT THU APR 5 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1800 EDT ON APRIL 05. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...THE DRY AIR FROM THE HUDSON BAY HIGH IS BEGINNING TO PUSH THE MOISTURE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON SO THAT THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DROP OFF TO AROUND 20% AROUND 1600 OR 1700. EXPECTING THAT BY IGNITION TIME...THE TEMPERATURES WILL START TO FALL AS THE SUN BEGINS TO SET. WINDS HAVE BEEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME NORTH AT 6 TO 8 MPH BY IGNITION TIME. THE NORTH WINDS SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT MOST LOCAL AFFECTS...UNTIL THE HIGH SETTLES IN THIS EVENING...ALLOWING THE WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT. .REST OF TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-5 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MAX 49. RH..................MIN 22 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 6 TO 8 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 10 TO 13 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......5100-5200 FT AGL. HAINES INDEX........MAX 5. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MAX EXCELLENT(700). TIME (EDT) 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........0 0 0 0 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............45 47 49 49 RH..............31 26 22 22 20 FT WIND DIR..N N N N 20 FT WIND SPD..6 7 7 7 20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 15 15 HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 5 SMOKE DISP......500 500 600 700 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR (0-5 PERCENT). WIDESPREAD FROST AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURE.........47 AT IGNITION...MIN 15. RH..................25 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MAX 100 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS NORTH AT 8 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE NORTH WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 9 TO 16 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3600 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 3600 FT AGL DECREASING TO 400-1000 FT AGL IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (700) AT IGNITION. MIN...POOR (0). TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).........0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 WEATHER COV..... WID WID WID WID WEATHER TYPE.... FST FST FST FST TEMP............47 43 37 32 27 23 19 17 16 16 16 16 RH..............25 30 40 51 65 77 96 100 100 100 100 100 20 FT WIND DIR..N N N N N N N N N N N N 20 FT WIND SPD..7 7 6 5 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 15 10 5 HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 5 4 4 4 5 5 5 4 4 SMOKE DISP......700 700 600 400 200 100 100 100 100 100 100 0 $$ FORECASTER...JEFF LUTZ REQUESTED BY...JAE NAUGLE TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20120405.MERID.01/APX