FNUS72 KMFL 052314
FWSMFL

SPOT FORECAST FOR ROUND TWO FIRE...U.S. FISH & WILDLIFE SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
714 PM EDT THU APR 5 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1833 EDT ON APRIL 05.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW CURRENTLY ACROSS THE BURN SITE IS EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST. THERE IS CURRENTLY A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE EAST CENTRAL GULF PROPAGATING TO THE SOUTHEAST THAT MAY
AFFECT THE BURN AREA...IF SO PROBABLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. IN ADDITION
THERE IS AN ADDITIONAL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE
OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO NORTH FLORIDA EARLY FRIDAY.
THE LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING MAY ALSO RESULT IN
A SLIGHT RISK OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A TORNADO.
GIVEN THESE CONDITIONS NEED TO EMPHASIZE AGAIN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST.

.REST OF TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN
                    CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN
                    THE EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....MIN 70.
MAX HUMIDITY........MAX 90 PERCENT.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 2000...THEN 3.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 5 TO 13 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2300-4000 FT AGL DECREASING TO 500-700 FT AGL
                    LATE IN THE EVENING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9 TO 17 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 7 MPH
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
DISPERSION INDEX....49 DECREASING TO 8 EARLY IN THE EVENING.
LVORI...............5.
CHANCE OF PCPN......50 PERCENT.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........50     50     50     50     60     60
WEATHER COV.....ISOLTD CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........ISOLTD CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
TEMP............86     81     77     75     73     72
RH..............63     74     79     82     84     87
20 FT WIND......W 12   W 7    W 7    W 5    W 4    W 4
20 FT WIND GUST.25     15     15     10     10     10
MIX HGT (FT)....4000   2300   2300   700    500    500
MIXNG WIND......W 17   W 14   W 14   W 9    W 7    W 7
DISPERSION IDX..49     12     12     8      5      5
LVORI...........5      5      5      5      5      5
CHC OF PCPN (%).20     50     50     50     50     50
LAL.............2      3      3      3      3      3

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY EARLY IN THE
                    MORNING. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
                    EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....MAX 87.
MIN HUMIDITY........MIN 53 PERCENT.
LAL.................3 UNTIL 0800...THEN 4 UNTIL 1400...THEN 3.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 5 TO 13 MPH INCREASING TO 17 TO 18
                    MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH EARLY IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500-1800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3100-4500 FT AGL
                    LATE IN THE MORNING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 7 TO 9 MPH INCREASING TO 18 TO 26 MPH LATE
                    IN THE MORNING.
DISPERSION INDEX....4 INCREASING TO 75.
LVORI...............3.
CHANCE OF PCPN......60 PERCENT.

$$
FORECASTER...DIEHL
REQUESTED BY...JENNIFER HINCKLEY
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120405.ROUND.02/MFL