FNUS73 KPAH 051255 FWSPAH SPOT FORECAST FOR CRAB ORCHARD CAMPGROUND PILES...USFWS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 755 AM CDT THU APR 5 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 CDT ON APRIL 05. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... DUE TO THE SLOW EAST...SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT OF A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER ARKANSAS...CANNOT RULE OUT INTERMITTENT SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN AN AND NEAR THE PRESCRIBED BURN AREA THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DRAMATICALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT. WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARBY...LITTLE SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL NOT BE REALIZED UNTIL CLOSER TO DUSK. BETTER BURNING CONDITIONS WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR ON FRIDAY...AS LIGHTER WINDS AND MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY WILL BE IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE.........57 AT IGNITION...MAX 62. RH..................83 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 51 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS NORTHEAST AT 7 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE NORTHEAST WINDS 6 TO 12 MPH. CWR.................30 PERCENT DECREASING TO 0 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 2. MIXING HEIGHT.......1800 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 1800-3500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4000-4400 FT AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 20 TO 28 MPH. TIME (CDT) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM SKY (%).........CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY MC MC WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW TEMP............57 58 59 60 60 59 58 57 57 RH..............83 80 75 69 64 62 59 59 57 20 FT WIND DIR..NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE 20 FT WIND SPD..6 7 8 10 10 9 9 9 8 20 FT WIND GUST.10 15 15 20 20 20 20 20 15 MIX HGT (KFT)...1.8 1.9 1.9 2.2 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.4 TRANSP WIND DIR.E E E NE NE NE NE NE NE TRANSP WIND SPD.23 22 21 20 21 22 24 26 28 CWR.............30 30 30 0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR (20-30 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MIN 39. RH..................MAX 88 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT...THEN BECOMING NORTH AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........2 TO 5 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3200-4300 FT AGL DECREASING TO 400-1800 FT AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 17 TO 25 MPH BECOMING SOUTH 0 TO 8 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING. TIME (CDT) 7 PM 9 PM 11 PM 1 AM 3 AM 5 AM SKY (%).........MCLDY MCLDY PCLDY MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............56 51 47 45 42 41 RH..............59 68 76 79 82 79 20 FT WIND......NE 7 N 5 N 4 N 3 NE 3 NE 3 20 FT WIND GUST.15 10 5 5 5 5 MIX HGT (FT)....4300 1800 400 600 600 500 TRANSPORT WIND..NE 25 SE 8 S 0 S 0 S 0 S 0 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....2 3 5 5 4 4 .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MAX 63. RH..................MIN 26 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......700-2400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3200-5000 FT AGL IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 0 TO 9 MPH INCREASING TO NORTHEAST 18 TO 26 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN DECREASING TO 14 TO 16 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (CDT) 7 AM 10 AM 1 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............40 52 59 62 RH..............79 46 37 32 20 FT WIND......N 4G5 NE 6G10 NE 6G10 NE 5G10 MIX HGT (FT)....700 3200 3800 4700 TRANSPORT WIND..S 0 NE 26 NE 18 NE 14 CWR.............0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....4 4 5 4 $$ FORECASTER...SMITH REQUESTED BY...ERIC PFEILSCHIFTER TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20120405.CRABO.01/PAH