FNUS75 KBOU 101555 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR VILS RX...BLM NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 954 AM MDT TUE APR 10 2012 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT. THE AIRMASS WILL BECOME UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON...AND DESPITE WEAK TRANSPORT WINDS... MIXING HEIGHTS WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO PROVIDE FOR ADEQUATE SMOKE DISPERSION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOME CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG THE HIGHER RIDGES EAST AND SOUTH OF THE SITE. HUMIDITY WILL BE LOW THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING WITH THE AIRMASS BECOMING STABLE. ON WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN TRANSPORT WINDS. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR BETTER SMOKE DISPERSION DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER RIDGES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE SITE. IF THE STORMS DO DEVELOP... THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AFFECTING THE SITE. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY THE WEEKEND WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .REST OF TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY UNTIL 1200...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(30-40%). MAX TEMPERATURE.....59-64. MIN HUMIDITY........8-14%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 7-13 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH AFTER 1200. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9-20 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3000 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 6000 FT AGL BY 1100. AFTER 1200...9400-10400 FT AGL UNTIL 1400... THEN 13000-14000 FT AGL UNTIL 1700...THEN 10200 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR UNTIL 1100...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1200...THEN VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT. HAINES INDEX........4 LOW. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. MIN TEMPERATURE.....38. MAX HUMIDITY........43-47%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST 4-7 MPH UNTIL 2100...THEN SOUTHEAST 7-13 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 4-12 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......8000 FT AGL UNTIL 1900. BELOW 1000 FT AGL AFTER 2100. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD UNTIL 1900...THEN FAIR UNTIL 2000...THEN POOR. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY UNTIL 1200...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(30-40%). MAX TEMPERATURE.....58-64. MIN HUMIDITY........8-14%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 13-19 MPH. GUSTS TO 25 MPH AFTER 1200. SLIGHT CHANCE OF GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 35 MPH IF STORMS DEVELOP OVER THE RIDGES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 8-16 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN SOUTHWEST 20-28 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 8000 FEET AGL BY 1200...THEN 11600-12600 FT AGL AFTER 1400. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1100...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1200...THEN VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. COOLER. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 14 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. .FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS AFTER 1800. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH. .SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR VILSRX. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 04/10-09 16 0 0 41 34 S 6 6 4 1 W29 263 SW 7 1456 P 04/10-10 16 0 0 47 28 SW 6 6 4 1 W30 3095 SW10 45810 F 04/10-11 16 0 0 52 24 SW 6 6 4 1 W30 5927 W14 90165 G 04/10-12 35 0 0 56 21 W 7 7 4 1 W29 8759 W17 134519 V 04/10-13 35 0 0 59 19 W 9 15 4 1 W29 10747 W18 172940 E 04/10-14 35 0 0 62 17 W12 18 3 1 W28 12735 W18 211360 E 04/10-15 35 0 0 63 16 W13 21 3 1 W25 14723 W20 249780 E 04/10-16 35 0 0 63 16 W10 17 3 1 W22 12504 W17 192788 E 04/10-17 35 0 0 62 17 W 7 7 3 1 W20 10285 W14 135796 V 04/10-18 30 0 0 59 18 W 5 5 3 1 W16 8067 W12 78804 G 04/10-19 30 0 0 57 20 SW 3 3 3 1 W16 5478 SW 9 52932 F 04/10-20 30 0 0 53 24 S 3 3 3 1 SW16 2890 S 7 27059 P 04/10-21 30 0 0 49 30 SE 5 5 3 1 SW17 301 SE 5 1186 P 04/10-22 30 0 0 46 35 SE 6 6 3 1 SW18 259 SE 6 1160 P 04/10-23 30 0 0 44 40 SE 6 6 3 1 SW22 217 SE 7 1134 P 04/11-00 23 0 0 43 43 SE 7 7 3 1 SW24 175 S 7 1108 P 04/11-01 23 0 0 41 45 SE 7 7 3 1 SW28 164 S 7 1043 P 04/11-02 23 0 0 40 46 SE 7 7 3 1 SW30 153 S 7 978 P 04/11-03 23 0 0 40 47 SE 7 7 3 1 SW30 142 S 7 913 P 04/11-04 23 0 0 39 47 SE 7 7 3 1 SW28 141 S 8 953 P 04/11-05 23 0 0 39 45 SE 8 13 3 1 SW24 141 S 8 993 P 04/11-06 23 0 0 38 46 SE 8 13 3 1 SW21 141 S 8 1033 P 04/11-07 23 0 0 38 47 SE 8 13 3 1 SW22 197 S 8 1444 P 04/11-08 23 0 0 40 44 S 7 7 3 1 SW24 253 S 8 1855 P 04/11-09 23 0 0 43 39 S 7 7 3 1 SW26 309 S 8 2266 P 04/11-10 23 0 0 47 33 S 9 14 3 1 SW28 2350 S13 39260 P 04/11-11 23 0 0 53 27 SW13 18 3 1 SW30 4390 S16 76253 G 04/11-12 36 0 0 57 24 SW15 23 3 1 SW31 6430 SW21 113247 V 04/11-13 36 0 0 60 21 SW16 23 3 1 SW33 8711 SW22 174521 E 04/11-14 36 0 0 63 18 SW16 23 3 1 SW37 10992 SW24 235795 E 04/11-15 36 0 0 63 18 SW15 23 3 1 SW39 13273 SW25 297069 E 04/11-16 36 0 0 64 17 SW14 22 3 1 SW41 12441 SW26 287097 E 04/11-17 36 0 0 64 17 S14 21 3 1 SW45 11608 SW28 277126 E 04/11-18 54 20 4 61 18 S13 20 3 3 SW46 10776 SW29 267155 E 04/11-19 54 20 4 59 20 S12 17 3 3 SW48 7305 SW24 179560 E 04/11-20 54 20 4 55 24 S12 16 3 3 SW49 3834 SW18 91966 G 04/11-21 54 20 4 48 31 SW10 16 3 3 SW51 363 S14 4371 P 04/11-22 54 20 4 44 37 SW10 16 3 3 SW55 317 SW14 3786 P 04/11-23 54 20 4 42 42 SW10 16 3 3 SW59 271 SW14 3200 P 04/12-00 71 0 0 40 45 SW10 16 3 1 SW62 226 SW14 2614 P 04/12-01 71 0 0 39 48 SW 9 14 3 1 SW63 598 SW15 8522 P 04/12-02 71 0 0 39 47 SW 8 8 2 1 SW62 970 SW16 14431 P 04/12-03 71 0 0 38 48 SW 7 7 2 1 SW62 1342 SW17 20339 P 04/12-04 71 0 0 37 48 SW 6 6 2 1 SW63 2187 SW20 40654 F 04/12-05 71 0 0 37 47 SW 6 6 2 1 SW66 3031 SW22 60969 G 04/12-06 38 0 0 37 46 SW 7 7 2 1 SW64 3875 SW24 81283 G 04/12-07 38 0 0 36 45 SW10 15 2 1 SW61 4385 SW26 101866 V 04/12-08 38 0 0 37 41 SW14 21 2 1 SW55 4894 SW29 122449 V 04/12-09 38 0 0 40 36 SW17 26 2 1 SW51 5404 SW30 143032 V 04/12-10 38 0 0 42 32 SW20 29 2 1 SW49 6011 SW30 158364 E 04/12-11 38 0 0 45 27 SW21 30 2 1 SW51 6619 SW30 173697 E 04/12-12 54 0 0 48 23 SW21 31 2 1 SW52 7226 SW30 189029 E 04/12-13 54 0 0 50 21 SW21 32 2 1 SW54 8489 SW30 219443 E 04/12-14 54 0 0 52 19 W21 32 2 1 SW55 9753 SW30 249856 E 04/12-15 54 0 0 52 19 W21 31 2 1 SW54 11016 SW29 280269 E 04/12-16 54 0 0 52 18 W20 30 2 1 SW49 11606 SW28 278920 E 04/12-17 54 0 0 52 18 W18 28 3 1 SW43 12197 SW26 277572 E 04/12-18 61 0 0 51 19 W17 26 3 1 SW37 12787 SW25 276223 E 04/12-19 61 0 0 49 21 W16 24 3 1 SW36 10906 SW23 220739 E 04/12-20 61 0 0 46 24 SW14 21 3 1 SW36 9025 SW20 165255 E 04/12-21 61 0 0 41 31 SW13 20 3 1 SW36 7144 SW17 109771 V 04/12-22 61 0 0 39 36 SW12 17 3 1 SW33 6517 SW18 105154 V 04/12-23 61 0 0 37 40 SW10 15 3 1 SW31 5890 SW20 100537 V 04/13-00 61 4 1 36 43 SW 9 14 3 1 SW30 5263 SW21 95920 G 04/13-01 61 4 1 35 47 SW 8 8 3 1 SW32 5252 SW22 98921 G 04/13-02 61 4 1 35 48 SW 8 8 3 1 SW36 5240 SW22 101923 V 04/13-03 61 4 1 34 50 SW 8 8 3 1 SW39 5229 SW23 104924 V 04/13-04 61 4 1 34 51 SW 8 8 3 1 SW43 5239 SW23 106165 V 04/13-05 61 4 1 33 52 SW 9 14 3 1 SW44 5248 SW23 107405 V 04/13-06 69 5 1 33 52 SW10 16 3 1 SW46 5258 SW24 108645 V KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/ WR - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.1 INCH /PERCENT/ AT - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E- EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...LESZCYNSKI...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...TAYLOR WELSHIMER REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20120410.VILSR.01/BOU