FNUS75 KBOU 111601 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR FOX WF...BLM NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 1000 AM MDT WED APR 11 2012 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY... .DISCUSSION...SOUTHWEST WINDS AREA EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE MORNING...AND WILL COMBINE WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO PRODUCE RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. IN ADDITION...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WHICH MAY GENERATE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG THE RIDGES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE SITE. THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 40 MPH WHICH MAY SPREAD ACROSS THE SITE. THE STORM CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH THE CHANCE FOR WETTING RAIN LOW. ON THURSDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY...BUT HUMIDITY READINGS SHOULD BE ABOVE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH COLDER AIR ALONG WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .REST OF TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(30-40%) UNTIL 1200...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1500...MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE SITE. MAX TEMPERATURE.....55-60. MIN HUMIDITY........14-19%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 2-5 MPH UNTIL 1100...THEN SOUTHWEST 13-19 MPH. GUSTS TO 25 MPH AFTER 1200. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 9-20 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 1000. 7400-8400 FT AGL AFTER 1500. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1100...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1200...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1300...THEN VERY GOOD. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. CHANCE OF WETTING RAIN...0% .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2400...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. MIN TEMPERATURE.....29-34. MAX HUMIDITY........54-57%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 8-14 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 16-24 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......5600 FT AGL LOWERING TO BELOW 1000 FEET AGL BY 2100. AFTER 0100 1600-2600 FT AGL INCREASING TO AROUND 3500 FT AGL BY 0300. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD UNTIL 1900...THEN GOOD UNTIL 2000...THEN POOR UNTIL 0200...THEN GOOD. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. CHANCE OF WETTING RAIN...10%. .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(30-40%) UNTIL 1200...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....46-50. MIN HUMIDITY........30-34%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 12-22 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 32-36 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN 21-32 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......7400-8400 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD UNTIL 0700...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 1100...THEN EXCELLENT. HAINES INDEX........4 LOW. CHANCE OF WETTING RAIN...0%. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 0600 UNTIL 1200. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AFTER 0600. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH. .SATURDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL 1200...THEN SNOW LIKELY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .SUNDAY...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 1800...THEN CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 9 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR FOX. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 04/11-09 28 0 0 44 39 S 7 7 3 1 SW22 235 S 8 1611 P 04/11-10 28 0 0 48 34 S 7 7 3 1 SW23 2006 S10 27165 P 04/11-11 28 0 0 51 31 SW 8 13 3 1 SW24 3778 S14 52719 F 04/11-12 60 10 2 54 29 SW 9 15 3 1 S25 5549 S16 78273 G 04/11-13 60 10 2 56 27 SW12 18 3 1 S26 6689 S17 101335 V 04/11-14 60 10 2 57 25 SW14 23 3 1 SW28 7828 S18 124397 V 04/11-15 60 10 2 58 24 SW16 25 3 2 SW30 8968 S18 147459 V 04/11-16 60 10 2 58 23 S16 26 3 2 SW31 7812 S20 132731 V 04/11-17 60 10 2 56 24 S15 24 3 2 SW33 6656 S21 118003 V 04/11-18 69 20 4 54 26 S14 22 3 3 SW36 5501 S22 103274 V 04/11-19 69 20 4 52 28 S12 20 3 3 SW38 3758 S17 69629 G 04/11-20 69 20 4 48 33 S10 16 3 3 SW39 2016 S14 35985 P 04/11-21 69 20 4 43 40 S 8 13 3 3 SW43 274 S10 2340 P 04/11-22 69 20 4 43 41 S 7 7 3 3 SW48 284 S10 2700 P 04/11-23 69 20 4 41 46 SW 7 7 2 3 SW55 294 SW12 3060 P 04/12-00 68 10 2 39 49 SW 7 7 2 1 SW60 305 SW13 3420 P 04/12-01 68 10 2 37 52 SW 7 7 2 1 SW63 1404 SW18 32238 P 04/12-02 68 10 2 36 54 SW 8 14 2 1 SW64 2502 SW23 61055 G 04/12-03 68 10 2 35 55 W 9 15 2 1 SW64 3601 SW29 89873 G 04/12-04 68 10 2 34 56 W 9 15 2 1 SW62 3491 SW30 92144 G 04/12-05 68 10 2 33 57 SW 9 15 2 1 SW60 3381 SW32 94416 G 04/12-06 34 6 1 33 56 SW10 16 2 1 SW58 3270 SW35 96687 G 04/12-07 34 6 1 34 53 SW14 21 3 1 SW55 3649 SW36 112011 V 04/12-08 34 6 1 36 48 SW16 24 4 1 SW53 4028 SW36 127335 V 04/12-09 34 6 1 38 43 SW18 28 4 1 SW52 4407 SW37 142659 V 04/12-10 34 6 1 41 37 SW20 29 4 1 SW52 4915 SW36 149510 V 04/12-11 34 6 1 44 33 SW20 30 3 1 S52 5424 SW33 156361 E 04/12-12 53 6 1 45 31 SW20 30 2 1 S53 5932 SW32 163211 E 04/12-13 53 6 1 46 30 W20 29 2 1 SW55 6749 SW29 160589 E 04/12-14 53 6 1 45 31 W20 29 2 1 SW58 7565 SW25 157967 E 04/12-15 53 6 1 45 31 W18 28 2 1 SW59 8382 SW22 155345 E 04/12-16 53 6 1 44 32 W17 26 2 1 SW58 8352 SW23 169280 E 04/12-17 53 6 1 43 33 W16 24 2 1 SW54 8321 SW25 183216 E 04/12-18 68 7 1 44 31 W15 23 2 1 SW52 8290 SW28 197152 E 04/12-19 68 7 1 43 33 W14 21 2 1 SW49 7200 SW26 165470 E 04/12-20 68 7 1 41 36 W13 20 2 1 S46 6110 SW24 133789 V 04/12-21 68 7 1 35 47 W12 17 2 1 S43 5019 SW23 102107 V 04/12-22 68 7 1 32 51 W10 15 2 1 S38 4634 SW23 91320 G 04/12-23 68 7 1 31 55 SW 9 9 2 1 SW32 4249 W22 80532 G 04/13-00 69 7 1 29 59 SW 8 8 2 1 SW29 3864 W21 69745 G 04/13-01 69 7 1 29 61 SW 8 8 2 1 SW28 3681 W21 66508 G 04/13-02 69 7 1 28 62 SW 8 8 3 1 SW29 3498 W21 63272 G 04/13-03 69 7 1 28 63 SW 8 8 3 1 SW30 3314 W21 60036 G 04/13-04 69 7 1 27 64 SW 8 8 3 1 SW31 3523 W20 60893 G 04/13-05 69 7 1 27 65 SW 9 9 3 1 SW32 3732 W20 61750 G 04/13-06 76 10 2 27 66 SW 9 14 3 1 SW33 3941 W18 62607 G 04/13-07 76 10 2 26 67 SW10 15 3 1 SW33 4172 SW18 67454 G 04/13-08 76 10 2 28 62 SW10 16 3 1 SW35 4404 SW18 72301 G 04/13-09 76 10 2 28 59 SW12 17 3 1 SW35 4635 SW20 77148 G 04/13-10 76 10 2 30 52 SW12 18 3 1 SW35 6095 SW21 111987 V 04/13-11 76 10 2 35 41 SW13 18 3 1 SW36 7554 SW22 146826 V 04/13-12 78 21 4 38 35 SW13 20 3 1 SW37 9014 SW23 181665 E 04/13-13 78 21 4 41 33 SW13 20 3 1 SW39 9972 SW24 211942 E 04/13-14 78 21 4 42 32 SW14 21 3 1 SW40 10930 SW25 242218 E 04/13-15 78 21 4 43 33 SW14 21 3 1 SW41 11888 SW26 272495 E 04/13-16 78 21 4 43 32 W14 21 3 1 SW41 11851 SW28 281293 E 04/13-17 78 21 4 44 31 W14 21 2 1 SW41 11814 SW29 290091 E 04/13-18 81 22 4 43 32 W13 20 2 1 SW40 11777 SW29 298889 E 04/13-19 81 22 4 42 34 W12 17 2 1 SW38 9729 SW26 230722 E 04/13-20 81 22 4 40 36 SW 9 15 3 1 SW36 7681 SW23 162556 E 04/13-21 81 22 4 36 43 SW 8 8 3 1 SW35 5632 SW20 94390 G 04/13-22 81 22 4 35 47 SW 7 7 3 1 SW36 5472 SW17 84517 G 04/13-23 81 22 4 34 49 SW 6 6 3 1 S38 5312 S16 74645 G 04/14-00 83 26 6 33 52 SW 5 5 3 1 S39 5152 S15 64772 G 04/14-01 83 26 6 32 55 SW 5 5 3 1 S38 5104 S15 67178 G 04/14-02 83 26 6 32 57 SW 5 5 2 1 S36 5056 SE16 69583 G 04/14-03 83 26 6 32 59 SW 5 5 2 1 S33 5008 SE16 71989 G 04/14-04 83 26 6 31 60 S 3 3 2 1 S32 5084 SE16 69211 G 04/14-05 83 26 6 31 59 SE 2 2 2 1 S31 5159 SE15 66433 G 04/14-06 83 45 22 31 60 CALM 1 2 1 S30 5235 S14 63655 G KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/ WR - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.1 INCH /PERCENT/ AT - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E- EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...LESZCYNSKI...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...WENDY FINNEGAN REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20120411.FOX__.01/BOU