FNUS75 KGJT 111519
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR MIDDLE CREEK...CRAIG DISPATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
919 AM MDT WED APR 11 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0844 MDT ON APRIL 11.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS
EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...
SOUTH WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TODAY IN RESPONSE TO A STORM SYSTEM
MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM
MOVING INTO EASTERN UTAH BY LATE AFTERNOON AND WILL BE MOVING THROUGH
WESTERN COLORADO THIS EVENING. WIND GUSTS OF NEAR 35 MPH WILL BE
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AS MIXING INCREASES AND MAY BE ENHANCED
BY DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ON THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO ALLOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES TO DROP BELOW 15 PERCENT AND LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WHERE FUELS ARE FAVORABLE. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO PASS THROUGH THE FIRE ZONE AROUND THE 9 PM TIME FRAME AND SWITCH
WINDS MORE TO A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF
AFTER MIDNIGHT...BECOMING MORE TERRAIN DRIVEN TOWARDS SUNRISE.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40%) THIS MORNING...THEN
                    BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70%) THIS AFTERNOON
                    WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 73 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........9-14%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH THROUGH
                    MID MORNING THEN INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH
                    THROUGH LATE MORNING. WINDS WILL BE INCREASING
                    TO 15 TO 25 MPH FROM THE SOUTH WITH A FEW
                    GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
                    AND EARLY EVENING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW.
LAL.................1 THIS MORNING...THEN 2.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70%) WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS...
                    ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....NEAR 35 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........45-50%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 25 PH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST
                    BY MID EVENING. WIND GUST NEAR 35 MPH WILL CONTINUE
                    TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID EVENING. WINDS WILL
                    DECREASE TO 5 TO 10 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTY AND
                    ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    EVENING.
HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW.
LAL.................2 THIS EVENING THEN 1.

$$
FORECASTER...DENNIS PHILLIPS
REQUESTED BY...SAM DEERSTYNE
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120411.MIDDL.02/GJT