FNUS75 KGJT 111629 FWSGJT SPOT FORECAST FOR ROCKY POINT...CRAIG DISPATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO 1029 AM MDT WED APR 11 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1001 MDT ON APRIL 11. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING... ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT... .DISCUSSION... SOUTH WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TODAY IN RESPONSE TO A STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM MOVING INTO EASTERN UTAH BY LATE AFTERNOON THEN THROUGH WESTERN COLORADO THIS EVENING. WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 50 MPH WILL BE DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AS MIXING INCREASES AND MAY BE ENHANCED BY DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ON THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO ALLOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO DROP BELOW 15 PERCENT AND LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WHERE FUELS ARE FAVORABLE. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE FIRE ZONE BY THE 9 PM TIME FRAME AND SWITCH WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST DIRECTION. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT...BECOMING MORE TERRAIN DRIVEN IN THE DEEPER VALLEY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL MIX DOWN ON FRIDAY WITH PASSING SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE. COOLER TEMPERATURES SHOULD BRING SOME RELIEF TO THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30%) THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON THEN INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BY LATE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....NEAR 75 F. MIN HUMIDITY........8-13%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......BREEZY. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH BECOMING SOUTH AND INCREASING 20 TO 30 MPH AT RIDGETOP WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH BY EARLY AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR BY NOON THEN INCREASING TO EXCELLENT DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. HAINES INDEX........4 LOW. LAL.................1...2 THIS AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......NEAR 4000 FT AGL BY NOON THEN INCREASING TO 11700 FT AGL BY MID AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 35 MPH. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70%) WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS... ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING. MIN TEMPERATURE.....NEAR 37 F. MAX HUMIDITY........40-45%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......BREEZY. SOUTH WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH AT RIDGETOP LEVEL DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BECOMING SOUTHWEST BY 9 PM. GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH BUT POSSIBLY HIGHER AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT EARLY IN THE EVENING DECREASING TO VERY GOOD THROUGH LATE EVENING...THEN POOR IN THE VALLEY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. LAL.................2 IN THE EVENING THEN 1. MIXING HEIGHT.......14100 FT AGL DECREASING TO 6100-6400 FT AGL IN THE LATE EVENING AND THEN LESS THAN 2000 FT AGL DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 39 MPH DECREASING TO 28 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN TERRAIN DRIVEN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60%) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80%). SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....52-57 F. MIN HUMIDITY........24-29%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......TERRAIN DRIVEN AT 5 MPH IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST 15 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR IN THE EARLY MORNING THEN INCREASING TO EXCELLENT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. LAL.................1. MIXING HEIGHT.......3000 FT AGL THROUGH MID MORNING THEN INCREASING TO 12200 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 22 MPH. $$ FORECASTER...DENNIS PHILLIPS REQUESTED BY...CHRIS GREEN TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20120411.ROCKY.01/GJT