FNUS73 KOAX 111011
FWSOAX

SPOT FORECAST FOR BOW CREEK...NPS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
511 AM CDT WED APR 11 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 CDT ON APRIL 11.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

AFTER A COLD START TO THE DAY WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS...THE HIGH PRESSURE WHICH HAS BROUGHT THE COOL
WEATHER WILL START TO SHIFT EAST TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE
WINDS TO SLOWLY INCREASE AND BACK TO AND EAST DIRECTION AND THEN
SOUTHEAST BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. VERY DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE TODAY WITH AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLING INTO THE
LOWER 20S...BUT LIGHT WINDS WILL LIMIT THE VERTICAL MIXING AND
FIRE DANGER TODAY. AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO RETURN TO THE AREA
ON THURSDAY WITH THE SOUTHEAST WINDS...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL
RETURN TO THE REGION.


.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 58.
MIN HUMIDITY........23 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL
                    FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......100-1900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2500-4100 FT AGL
                    LATE IN THE MORNING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 6 TO 10 MPH.

TIME (CDT)      11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM   7 PM   9 PM
SKY (%).........22     17     12     6      1      12
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............43     49     55     58     55     49
RH..............33     28     24     23     27     36
20 FT WIND......E 5    SE 6   SE 9   SE 10  SE 10  SE 9
20 FT WIND GUST.              10     15     15     10
HAINES INDEX....4      5      5      5      5      5

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (20-30 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    RAIN SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 39.
MAX HUMIDITY........70 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 9 TO 12 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL
                    FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2400-3900 FT AGL DECREASING TO 0-1200 FT AGL IN
                    THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 10 TO 16 MPH.

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 56.
MIN HUMIDITY........57 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 12 TO 21 MPH INCREASING TO 22
                    TO 24 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......100-1900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2700-3000 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 17 TO 23 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTH 28
                    TO 36 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING.

$$
FORECASTER...NWS OMAHA/VALLEY
REQUESTED BY...DWIGHT NEWMAN
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20120411.BOWCR.01/OAX