FNUS73 KOAX 111007
FWSOAX

SPOT FORECAST FOR FARM CREEK PWA...POTTAWATTAMIE COUNTY CONSERVATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
507 AM CDT WED APR 11 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 CDT ON APRIL 11.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

AFTER A COLD START TO THE DAY WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS...THE HIGH PRESSURE WHICH HAS BROUGHT THE COOL
WEATHER WILL START TO SHIFT EAST TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE
WINDS TO SLOWLY INCREASE AND BACK TO AND EAST DIRECTION AND THEN
SOUTHEAST BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. VERY DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE TODAY WITH AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLING INTO THE
LOWER 20S...BUT LIGHT WINDS WILL LIMIT THE VERTICAL MIXING AND
FIRE DANGER TODAY. AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO RETURN TO THE AREA
ON THURSDAY WITH THE SOUTHEAST WINDS...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL
RETURN TO THE REGION.


.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 58.
MIN HUMIDITY........24 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING
                    BECOMING LIGHT...THEN BECOMING NORTHEAST 5 TO 7
                    MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 TO 6 OR OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR
                    LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......100-2000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4600-4700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 6 TO 13 MPH.

TIME (CDT)      NOON   2 PM   4 PM   6 PM   8 PM   10 PM
SKY (%).........18     15     18     20     23     31
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............44     49     57     57     52     45
RH..............38     33     24     25     33     47
20 FT WIND......NE 3   NE 5   NE 7   E 7    SE 6   SE 5
20 FT WIND GUST.5
HAINES INDEX....5      5      6      6      6      5

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    RAIN SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 38.
MAX HUMIDITY........67 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 6 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR
                    LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2700-4500 FT AGL DECREASING TO 0-1300 FT AGL IN
                    THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 6 TO 12 MPH.

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    RAIN SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 60.
MIN HUMIDITY........50 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 7 TO 16 MPH INCREASING TO 17 TO
                    20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......200-2100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2500-2800 FT AGL
                    EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTH 30
                    TO 33 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...NWS OMAHA/VALLEY
REQUESTED BY...CHAD GRAEVE
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20120411.FARMC.01/OAX