FNUS73 KDMX 112144 FWSDMX SPOT FORECAST FOR PILOT KNOB-JOHNSON...IA DNR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 444 PM CDT WED APR 11 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 CDT ON APRIL 12. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. AN INITIAL OBSERVATION AT IGNITION AND A MID BURN OBSERVATION ARE REQUIRED... PLEASE RELAY THEM TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR EACH PRESCRIBED BURN. .DISCUSSION... CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT HEADING TOWARD THE STATE. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY AS MIXING INCREASES. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR (0-10 PERCENT). AREAS OF FROST AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 27. RH..................MAX 81 PERCENT. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......4600 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1700 FT AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING. MIXING WINDS........SOUTH 3 TO 7 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (1000-13800 KNOT-FT). WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. TIME (CDT) 7 PM 9 PM 11 PM 1 AM 3 AM 5 AM SKY (%).........0 0 0 0 0 4 WEATHER COV..... AREAS AREAS AREAS WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE FROST FROST FROST TSTM COV........ TEMP............52 44 38 34 31 28 RH..............24 33 46 56 66 75 20 FT WIND......E 2 E 2 SE 2 S 3 S 5 S 5 20 FT WIND GUST. 5 EYE LEVEL WIND..E 1 E 1 SE 1 S 2 S 4 S 4 EYE LVL WND GST. 5 MIX HGT (FT)....4600 1700 300 300 300 300 MIXNG WIND......SE 3 SE 5 S 6 S 7 S 6 S 6 HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 5 5 5 .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........47 AT IGNITION...MAX 56. RH..................42 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 40 PERCENT. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTH WINDS 6 TO 14 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST 12 TO 16 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3600 FT AGL IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MIXING WINDS........SOUTH 7 TO 16 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST 17 TO 20 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (1500-3000 KNOT-FT) IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO GOOD (55000 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTH AT 13 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE SOUTH WINDS 6 TO 14 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST 12 TO 16 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. TIME (CDT) 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM SKY (%).........6 9 16 23 29 36 39 43 52 61 70 78 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TSTM COV........ TEMP............28 33 40 47 48 49 50 52 54 55 55 55 RH..............78 66 52 42 42 42 42 41 40 40 41 43 20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S S S S SE 20 FT WIND SPD..6 8 10 13 14 16 16 15 14 13 12 12 20 FT WIND GUST. 10 15 15 20 20 20 20 20 15 15 15 EYE LVL WND DIR.S S S S S S S S S S S SE EYE LVL WND SPD.4 6 7 9 10 11 11 11 10 9 9 9 EYE LVL WND GST. 10 15 15 20 20 20 20 20 15 15 15 MIX HGT (KFT)...0.3 1.1 1.9 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.5 3.5 MIXNG WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S S S S SE MIXNG WIND SPD..7 9 14 16 17 17 17 17 17 17 18 20 HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 2 .THURSDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EVENING...THEN RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 45. RH..................MAX 79 PERCENT. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTHEAST WINDS 13 TO 20 MPH. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3400 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1200 FT AGL LATE IN THE EVENING. MIXING WINDS........SOUTHEAST 21 TO 23 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO EXCELLENT (9700-61400 KNOT-FT). WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 13 TO 20 MPH. TIME (CDT) 7 PM 10 PM 1 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........83 86 90 95 WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TSTM COV........ TEMP............54 50 49 47 RH..............46 58 66 74 20 FT WIND......SE 13G15 SE 18G25 SE 17G25 SE 18G25 EYE LEVEL WIND..SE 9G15 SE 13G25 SE 12G25 SE 13G25 MIX HGT (FT)....3400 2000 500 1200 MIXNG WIND......SE 21 SE 23 SE 22 SE 23 HAINES INDEX....2 2 2 2 .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE.........MAX 62. RH..................MIN 64 PERCENT. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTH WINDS 12 TO 20 MPH. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3300 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING WINDS........SOUTH 17 TO 26 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR TO EXCELLENT (22500-62100 KNOT-FT). WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 12 TO 20 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (CDT) 7 AM 10 AM 1 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........100 96 92 88 WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TSTM COV........ CHANCE CHANCE TEMP............46 53 59 61 RH..............79 71 64 67 20 FT WIND......SE 20G25 SE 18G25 S 16G20 S 14G20 EYE LEVEL WIND..SE 14G25 SE 13G25 S 11G20 S 10G20 MIX HGT (FT)....1100 2600 3200 3300 MIXNG WIND......SE 23 S 26 S 22 S 18 HAINES INDEX....2 2 2 2 $$ FORECASTER...COGIL REQUESTED BY...TODD WALROD TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20120412.PILOT.01/DMX