FNUS73 KAPX 131207
FWSAPX

SPOT FORECAST FOR CHICKADEE...DNR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
807 AM EDT FRI APR 13 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 EDT ON APRIL 13.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...GREAT DAY FOR BURNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH MID MORNING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH AROUND IGNITION TIME...AND REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE 5-10 MPH
RANGE INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT AFTER 2 PM...AND EXPECT WINDS WILL PROBABLY TURN
ONSHORE THROUGH MID AND LATE AFTERNOON FOR A TIME. ONLY A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS IS EXPECTED.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........48 AT IGNITION...MAX 59.
RH..................58 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 35 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTH AT 4 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE
                    SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH BECOMING EASTERLY
                    AFTER 2 PM WITH THE LAKE BREEZE.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 3 TO 12 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 15
                    MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......AROUND 5500 FT AGL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX
                    5.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (200) AT IGNITION. MAX...EXCELLENT
                    (700).

TIME (EDT)      11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........8   9   12  14  19  29  34
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TEMP............45  49  52  55  57  58  59
RH..............58  50  43  35  30  27  24
20 FT WIND DIR..S   S   S   SE  SE  E   E
20 FT WIND SPD..4   4   5   5   5   4   4
20 FT WIND GUST.5   10  10  10  10  10  10
HAINES INDEX....5   5   5   5   5   4   4
SMOKE DISP......200 300 400 500 600 700 700

$$
FORECASTER...DAVID LAWRENCE
REQUESTED BY...LEE OSTERLAND
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20120413.CHICK.01/APX