FNUS73 KMQT 131403 FWSMQT SPOT FORECAST FOR BARAGA BURN...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1003 AM EDT FRI APR 13 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0955 EDT ON APRIL 13. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE THE RULE TODAY...IN BETWEEN EXITING DRY HIGH PRESSURE AND NEARING LOW PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS STATES. HIGH CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO SLOWLY FILTER IN. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH WITH GUSTS IN THE MID 20 MPH RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING HOURS. EXPECT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR WEST TO SLIDE ACROSS MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT...AND EXIT ACROSS ONTARIO SATURDAY. WHILE THIS WILL BRING AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN TO THE BARAGA BURN AREA...THE CROSSING FRONTAL BOUNDARY BETWEEN 0800 AND 1000 SATURDAY MORNING WILL ALLOW WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE TO BECOME MORE OUT OF THE WEST. ANOTHER DAY OF HIGHER WIND GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY. WHILE SURFACE WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN OUT OF A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION...STRONGER GUSTS IN THE 20 MPH RANGE WILL SLOWLY ROTATE FROM A SOUTHWESTERLY TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD WARM TO AROUND 70 DEGREES...OR NEARLY 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. .REST OF TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS LATE. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 61. MIN HUMIDITY........23 PERCENT. GENERAL WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 9 TO 14 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH BY LATE MORNING. HAINES INDEX........2 TO 4...OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 15 TO 30 MPH. VENTILATION INDEX...GOOD (572) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (1072) IN THE AFTERNOON. LAL.................1. MIXING HEIGHT.......1300-3200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4300-5400 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.01 INCHES. TIME (EDT) 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM 6 PM SKY (%).........25 40 50 59 73 WEATHER COV..... S CHC WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR TEMP............46 54 60 61 60 RH..............44 31 23 24 28 GENERAL WIND....S 10 S 11 S 11 S 11 S 10 GENERAL GUST....16 23 24 26 26 VINDX KT-FT/100.217 572 928 1071 1042 MIX HGT (FT)....1300 3200 5200 5400 5000 HAINES INDEX....4 4 3 3 3 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY BY LATE EVENING. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 42. MAX HUMIDITY........97 PERCENT. GENERAL WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 7 TO 12 MPH. HAINES INDEX........2 TO 4...OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 23 TO 41 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 23 TO 39 MPH LATE. VENTILATION INDEX...GOOD (534) DECREASING TO POOR (39) BY MIDNIGHT. LAL.................1. MIXING HEIGHT.......2600-4200 FT AGL DECREASING TO 100-1900 FT AGL BY LATE EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.07 INCHES. TIME (EDT) 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM 6 AM SKY (%).........93 91 87 83 81 80 WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............57 53 48 46 44 43 RH..............40 48 63 79 83 90 GENERAL WIND....S 9 S 9 S 10 S 10 S 10 S 9 GENERAL GUST....21 21 21 18 16 13 VINDX KT-FT/100.1016 813 534 363 134 39 MIX HGT (FT)....4200 2600 1500 1100 500 100 HAINES INDEX....2 2 2 3 3 3 .SATURDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 71. MIN HUMIDITY........34 PERCENT. GENERAL WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 13 MPH. HAINES INDEX........4...OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 20 TO 37 MPH. VENTILATION INDEX...GOOD (392) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (980) LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (2207) EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. LAL.................1. MIXING HEIGHT.......600-1500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 7500-8300 FT AGL EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNT.....NONE TO A TRACE. TIME (EDT) 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM 6 PM SKY (%).........78 62 50 42 40 42 WEATHER COV.....S CHC WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............44 56 65 69 70 69 RH..............97 63 47 39 36 36 GENERAL WIND....SW 9 SW 9 SW 10 SW 10 SW 10 SW 10 GENERAL GUST....12 15 18 22 22 21 VINDX KT-FT/100.167 688 1354 2103 2150 1212 MIX HGT (FT)....600 2800 5400 7500 8300 5300 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 4 $$ FORECASTER...KF REQUESTED BY...PATRICIA DRAKE TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20120413.BARAG.01/MQT