FNUS73 KAPX 141024 FWSAPX SPOT FORECAST FOR SOUTH BRANCH PB...USDA FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 624 AM EDT SAT APR 14 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1500 EDT ON APRIL 14. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...AND LOW PRESSURE TRACKING JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TODAY. THE THREAT OF A COUPLE OF LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WILL END BY MID MORNING TODAY. THEREAFTER... SOME SUNNY BREAKS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM TODAY WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS...BUT INCREASED HUMIDITY. COMBINED WITH MORE CLOUDS...THIS WILL KEEP MIXING HEIGHTS LOWER THAN THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. AT THE FIRE SITE...LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHWEST BY MIDDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS OF AROUND 10 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED... WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 MPH. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT) NEAR IGNITION TIME. SCATTERED SPRINKLES EARLY IN THE MORNING. TEMPERATURE.........68 AT IGNITION...MAX 69. RH..................45 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 47 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING BECOMING LIGHT...THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 TO 21 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST AROUND 22 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......400-1100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6900 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 6900 FT AGL. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (1500) AT IGNITION. MAX...EXCELLENT (1700). TIME (EDT) 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........69 60 56 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............68 69 69 RH..............45 45 45 20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW 20 FT WIND SPD..9 9 9 20 FT WIND GUST.20 20 20 HAINES INDEX....4 4 5 SMOKE DISP......150017001600 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 51. RH..................MAX 100 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 9 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).........53 48 46 48 51 53 61 78 86 88 93 95 WEATHER COV..... CHC WEATHER TYPE.... RW TEMP............68 67 64 61 57 55 53 52 52 53 53 53 RH..............49 50 56 62 72 74 80 80 80 77 77 80 20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW S S S 20 FT WIND SPD..8 7 6 6 4 3 2 2 2 2 3 3 20 FT WIND GUST.20 15 15 10 10 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 $$ FORECASTER...JEFF ZOLTOWSKI REQUESTED BY...STEARNS TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20120414.SOUTH.01/APX