FNUS73 KAPX 141501 FWSAPX SPOT FORECAST FOR SOUTH BRANCH PB...USDA FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1101 AM EDT SAT APR 14 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1500 EDT ON APRIL 14. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...HERE IS AN UPDATE BASED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. NOT TOO MUCH DIFFERENT AFTER SPEAKING WITH YOU ON THE PHONE. DO BELIEVE THAT THERE WILL BE INCREASING SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. HUMIDITIES STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN DECENTLY ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS...AS MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE RISE THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS A BIT MORE GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST DUE TO INCREASED WARMING/MIXING. .REST OF TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........68 AT IGNITION...MAX 70. RH..................45 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 45 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH. GUSTS TO 22 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 18 TO 26 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......4500 FT. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (1200) AT IGNITION. MAX...EXCELLENT (1200). TIME (EDT) 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........50 38 32 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............68 69 68 RH..............45 45 47 20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW 20 FT WIND SPD..9 8 8 20 FT WIND GUST.20 20 20 HAINES INDEX....3 3 5 SMOKE DISP......120012001200 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 51. RH..................MAX 89 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 9 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).........32 32 32 46 46 47 61 78 86 88 93 95 WEATHER COV..... CHC WEATHER TYPE.... RW TEMP............67 65 62 61 57 55 53 52 52 53 53 53 RH..............50 54 60 62 72 74 80 80 80 77 77 80 20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW S S S 20 FT WIND SPD..8 7 6 6 4 3 2 2 2 2 3 3 20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 15 10 10 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .MONDAY... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 12 MPH. .TUESDAY... MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 8 MPH. .WEDNESDAY... MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. LIGHT WINDS. $$ FORECASTER...SCOTT DICKSON REQUESTED BY...STEARNS TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20120414.SOUTH.01/APX