FNUS71 KBOX 141359 FWSBOX SPOT FORECAST FOR UCF RESEARCH PLOTS...NATIONAL PARK SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 959 AM EDT SAT APR 14 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1030 EDT ON APRIL 14. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON THE FORECAST... EVALUATING THE LOCAL BOUNDARY LAYER PROFILE OVER CHATHAM...IF TEMPERATURES AT THE BURN SITE ARE ABLE TO REACH 58 TO 60 DEGREES... THEN LOW LEVEL PROFILES SHOULD MIX UP TO 5 TO 6 KFT. OTHERWISE EXPECT PROFILES ONLY UP TO 1000 FT AGL AT MOST. IF SUCH MIXING HEIGHTS MATERIALIZE COUPLED WITH DECENT WEST- SOUTHWEST TRANSPORT WINDS AROUND 15 MPH WILL LEND TO GOOD VENTILATION RATES. IN ADDITION WE SHOULD THE MIX-DOWN OF WESTERLY FLOW. PRESENTLY WINDS ARE VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE OUT OF THE WEST- NORTHWEST. THE ANTICIPATION IS FOR WESTERLY WINDS TO INCREASE THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. LAST...AND IMPORTANTLY...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE AROUND 30 PERCENT. OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... MAINLY DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. THEREFORE...WE MAY STILL BE DEALING WITH AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY. TEMPERATURE.........57 AT IGNITION...MAX 64. RH..................45 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 30 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS WEST AT 9 MPH AT IGNITION... OTHERWISE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 7 TO 10 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......UP TO 1300 FT AGL AT IGNITION...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF MIXING UP TO 5 TO 6 KFT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 7 TO 13 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MARGINAL TO GOOD /INCREASING TO AROUND 50000 KNOT-FT INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON/. TIME (EDT) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).............10 14 17 21 24 30 36 42 WEATHER COV......... WEATHER TYPE........ TSTM COV............ TEMP................55 57 60 60 62 63 62 62 RH..................45 43 39 39 36 35 38 39 20 FT WIND DIR......W W W W W SW SW SW 20 FT WIND SPD......6 7 7 7 6 6 7 8 20 FT WIND GUST.....15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 MIX HGT (KFT).......0.2 0.6 1.3 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 /ESTIMATED/ TRANSP WIND DIR.....W W SW SW SW SW SW SW TRANSP WIND SPD.....10 9 8 7 7 8 10 13 LVORI...............2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 ADI.................11 10 9 5 8 9 11 14 VRATE KT-FT/1000....1 1 2 3 4 3 3 3 /ESTIMATED/ .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 49. RH..................MAX 83 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 10 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......100-200 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO POOR (900-1100 KNOT-FT). TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).............47 53 59 65 71 78 84 90 96 89 83 76 WEATHER COV......... SCH SCH CHC SCH SCH SCH WEATHER TYPE........ RW RW RW RW RW RW TSTM COV............ TEMP................59 56 54 52 51 51 51 50 50 50 49 50 RH..................45 53 59 69 71 74 74 77 77 77 83 80 20 FT WIND DIR......SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW 20 FT WIND SPD......8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 20 FT WIND GUST.....15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 MIX HGT (KFT).......0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 TRANSP WIND DIR.....SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW TRANSP WIND SPD.....15 17 20 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 17 17 LVORI...............2 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 ADI.................16 19 21 20 20 16 16 16 16 16 15 15 VRATE KT-FT/1000....1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 .SUNDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. TEMPERATURE.........MAX 61. RH..................MIN 69 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 10 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......100-700 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 13 TO 17 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO POOR (800-8400 KNOT-FT). TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).............69 62 56 53 51 49 47 44 42 43 43 44 WEATHER COV.........SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH WEATHER TYPE........RW RW RW RW RW RW TSTM COV............ TEMP................50 51 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 59 60 59 RH..................83 80 74 74 74 74 72 72 72 72 69 72 20 FT WIND DIR......SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW 20 FT WIND SPD......6 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 7 7 7 8 20 FT WIND GUST.....15 15 15 15 15 20 15 15 15 15 15 15 MIX HGT (KFT).......0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.1 TRANSP WIND DIR.....SW SW SW SW S S S S S S S S TRANSP WIND SPD.....17 16 16 15 15 14 14 13 13 13 13 14 LVORI...............M M M M M M M M M M M M ADI.................M M M M M M M M M M M M VRATE KT-FT/1000....2 2 3 5 7 8 8 8 8 5 3 1 $$ FORECASTER...SIPPRELL REQUESTED BY...JUSTIN DEFOREST TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20120414.UCFRE.02/BOX