FNUS73 KAPX 171627 FWSAPX SPOT FORECAST FOR HORSESHOE...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1227 PM EDT TUE APR 17 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1400 EDT ON APRIL 17. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO THIN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH THE ARRIVAL OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED TO BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 40S BY LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER 10 MPH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. EXPECT MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 35 PERCENT. .REST OF TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........37 AT IGNITION...MAX 46. RH..................52 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 35 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS NORTHWEST AT 6 MPH AT IGNITION... OTHERWISE NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9 TO 10 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......4100 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 4100-4800 FT AGL. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (500) AT IGNITION. MAX...GOOD (500). TIME (EDT) 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........83 53 38 33 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............37 40 43 45 RH..............52 44 38 35 20 FT WIND DIR..NW NW W NW 20 FT WIND SPD..7 6 5 5 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 10 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 SMOKE DISP......500 500 500 500 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (25-35 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MIN 25. RH..................MAX 85 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 3 TO 10 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......4200 FT AGL DECREASING TO 400-700 FT AGL IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HAINES INDEX........MIN 3. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MIN POOR(0). TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).........26 17 13 28 27 26 29 34 37 39 42 44 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............45 44 42 40 37 34 31 28 26 26 26 27 RH..............35 38 41 44 52 58 66 78 85 85 85 81 20 FT WIND DIR..NW NW NW N E SE SE SE S SE SE SE 20 FT WIND SPD..5 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 1 1 2 2 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 5 5 5 5 5 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 SMOKE DISP......400 200 100 100 100 100 0 0 0 0 0 100 .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT) SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE.........MAX 61. RH..................MIN 39 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 12 TO 21 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST 35 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......600-1300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2700-4300 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........MAX 4. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MAX EXCELLENT(2000). TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........46 53 60 66 77 88 WEATHER COV..... SCTTRD SCTTRD WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............27 30 44 53 56 59 RH..............85 81 53 43 40 39 20 FT WIND......SE 2 SE 5 S 8 S 12 S 15 S 15 20 FT WIND GUST.5 10 15 25 30 30 HAINES INDEX....3 3 2 2 2 3 SMOKE DISP......100 100 400 700 1000 1800 $$ FORECASTER...JOHN BORIS REQUESTED BY...D-A BRABAZON TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20120417.HORSE.01/APX