FNUS73 KAPX 171540
FWSAPX

SPOT FORECAST FOR THOMPSON FARM...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1140 AM EDT TUE APR 17 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1630 EDT ON APRIL 17.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...EASTERN EDGE OF MORE PERSISTENT CLOUD DECK JUST REACHING
INTO ALCONA/IOSCO COUNTIES...BUT FOR THE MOST PART EXPECT AT LEAST
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH CLOUDS
LIKELY THINNING OUT EVEN MORE BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON.  THIS SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM AT LEAST INTO THE MID 40S...WITH MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 30-35 PERCENT RANGE.  NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE...AND WILL LIKELY SEE LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON PUSH IN FROM LAKE HURON.  AT THIS TIME...
DON'T EXPECT LAKE BREEZE ACTIVITY TO REACH FORECAST LOCATION...BUT
JUST SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR (MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME FROM
500-700 PM...WOULD CONSTITUTE A WIND SHIFT TO THE EAST AT ABOUT
6-8 MPH).

.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........44 AT IGNITION...MAX 46.
RH..................37 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 34 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS NORTHWEST AT 7 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE
                    NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 4 TO 8 MPH.  LOW PROBABILITY
                    FOR LAKE BREEZE WIND SHIFT AFTER 5 PM (EAST 6-8
                    MPH).
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 8 TO 9 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5300 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 3800-5300
                    FT AGL.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (500) AT IGNITION. MAX...GOOD (500).

TIME (EDT)      4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........32  24
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TEMP............44  46
RH..............37  35
20 FT WIND DIR..NW  NW
20 FT WIND SPD..5   4
20 FT WIND GUST.9   8
HAINES INDEX....4   4
SMOKE DISP......500 400

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (20-30 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 23.
RH..................MAX 88 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........13  6   2   10  23  27  29  34  36  38  41  43
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TEMP............44  44  43  40  36  32  29  27  26  25  26  27
RH..............38  38  39  46  54  66  75  81  81  88  85  81
20 FT WIND DIR..NW  N   N   NE  E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
20 FT WIND SPD..3   2   1   1   2   2   2   1   1   1   1   1
20 FT WIND GUST.5   5   5   5   5   5   5

$$
FORECASTER...JOHN BORIS
REQUESTED BY...BSTEARNS
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20120417.THOMP.01/APX