FNUS73 KAPX 181208 FWSAPX SPOT FORECAST FOR HORSESHOE...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 808 AM EDT WED APR 18 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0815 EDT ON APRIL 18. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE WINDS...INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHEAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........36 AT IGNITION...MAX 61. RH..................81 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 39 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTHEAST AT 6 MPH AT IGNITION... OTHERWISE BECOMING SOUTH 13 TO 16 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 10 TO 17 MPH INCREASING TO 20 TO 29 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. MIXING HEIGHT.......1600 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 500-1600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3200-3900 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (200) AT IGNITION. MAX...EXCELLENT (1200). TIME (EDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........36 43 55 62 64 69 71 76 87 92 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............30 36 43 48 51 54 56 57 59 59 RH..............81 67 55 47 46 43 42 40 39 40 20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE S S S S S S S S 20 FT WIND SPD..5 6 6 7 10 12 14 15 14 14 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 15 15 20 25 30 30 30 25 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 SMOKE DISP......100 200 400 600 700 800 900 110012001200 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS IN THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 42. RH..................MAX 86 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 5 TO 13 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 21 TO 28 MPH DECREASING TO 9 TO 17 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING...THEN SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST 6 TO 10 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIXING HEIGHT.......200-2100 FT AGL. HAINES INDEX........MIN 2. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MIN POOR(0). TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).........93 95 95 91 83 78 79 80 81 78 73 70 WEATHER COV..... ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW RW TEMP............60 60 59 57 55 52 50 48 47 46 45 45 RH..............41 42 45 51 57 63 68 74 76 79 82 82 20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S SW SW SW SW SW SW W W 20 FT WIND SPD..12 10 9 8 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 20 FT WIND GUST.25 20 20 20 15 15 15 15 10 10 10 10 HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 SMOKE DISP......1000700 400 200 100 0 0 0 0 0 100 100 .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE.........MAX 56. RH..................MIN 45 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON BECOMING LIGHT...THEN BECOMING EAST 5 TO 6 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 5 TO 13 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......800-2600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3200 FT AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........MAX 4. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MAX FAIR(200). TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........66 53 59 69 90 96 WEATHER COV..... CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE RAIN RAIN TEMP............43 42 47 51 54 55 RH..............86 82 65 54 50 47 20 FT WIND......W 5 NW 5 N 6 N 6 NE 4 E 6 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 15 10 10 10 HAINES INDEX....2 2 3 4 4 3 SMOKE DISP......100 100 200 200 200 200 $$ FORECASTER...JOHN BORIS REQUESTED BY...JOE ALYEA TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20120418.HORSE.01/APX